2006—2023年全球牛结节性皮肤病流行特征分析  

Epidemic Characteristics Analysis of Global Lumpy Skin Disease from 2006 to 2023

作　　者：李力 白艺伟 熊霙 刘博洋 LI Li;BAI Yiwei;XIONG Ying;LIU Boyang(College of Wildlife and Protected Areas,Northeast Forestry University,Harbin 150040,China)

机构地区：[1]东北林业大学野生动物与自然保护地学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150040

出　　处：《中国兽医杂志》2024年第11期46-53,共8页Chinese Journal of Veterinary Medicine

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(32202842);黑龙江省自然科学基金项目(LH2021C019);中央高校基本科研业务费(2572021BE01)。

摘　　要：为了解全球牛结节性皮肤病(LSD)的流行特征,对其针对性防控提供参考,本试验从世界动物卫生组织(WOAH)和联合国粮食及农业组织(FAO)获取2006—2023年全球LSD官方报告疫情数据。通过季节性趋势分析的方法分析LSD流行的季节性趋势,通过基于标准差椭圆的方向分布分析揭示LSD的传播方向趋势,通过基于时空扫描统计量的时空聚集性分析得出LSD的时空聚集区。季节性趋势分析结果显示,LSD的流行具有明显的季节性,春夏为流行高峰期,秋冬则通常不易发生。方向分布分析结果显示,LSD在4个流行阶段中具有不完全相同的传播方向,第1阶段(2006—2014年)和第2阶段(2015—2017年)的LSD疫情呈现西南-东北方向的传播;第3阶段(2018—2020年)的LSD疫情呈现西北-东南方向的传播;第4阶段(2021—2023年)的LSD疫情呈现西南-东北方向的传播;在研究时段内LSD疫情的潜在传播路径为从非洲到欧洲再到亚洲;LSD传播范围逐渐扩大,主要流行区域从非洲、欧洲逐渐向亚洲东南部转移。时空聚集性分析共得到研究时段内9个具有统计学意义的时空聚集区,其中6个分布于我国及周边国家,提示了我国LSD防控工作的必要性。本试验通过多种分析方法综合分析了2006—2023年全球LSD疫情的流行特征,揭示了LSD在不同季节的流行规律、传播方向趋势和时空聚集区的分布情况,为未来预测LSD的流行趋势提供了重要依据,为制定针对性的防控策略和国际合作提供了科学支持。To understand the epidemic characteristics of lumpy skin disease(LSD)in cattle globally and provide references for targeted prevention and control,this study collected official LSD outbreak data from the World Organization for Animal Health(WOAH)and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations(FAO)from 2006 to 2023.Seasonal trend analysis was conducted to determine the seasonality of LSD outbreaks,while directional distribution analysis based on standard deviation ellipses was used to reveal the transmission direction trends of LSD.Additionally,spatiotemporal clustering analysis using spatiotemporal scan statistics identified significant spatiotemporal clusters of LSD.The seasonal trend analysis revealed a clear seasonality in LSD outbreaks,with spring and summer being peak periods,while autumn and winter typically see fewer occurrences.Directional distribution analysis indicated that LSD exhibited slightly different transmission directions during four epidemic phases:the first phase(2006—2014)and the second phase(2015—2017)showed southwest-northeast transmission;the third phase(2018—2020)showed northwest-southeast transmission;and the fourth phase(2021—2023)returned to southwest-northeast transmission.The potential transmission path during this study period was identified as moving from Africa to Europe and then to Asia,with the spread of LSD gradually expanding.The primary epidemic areas shifted from Africa and Europe towards Southeast Asia.The spatiotemporal clustering analysis identified nine statistically significant clusters during the study period,six of which were located in China and its neighboring countries,highlighting the necessity for enhanced LSD prevention and control measures in China.This study employs various analytical methods to comprehensively analyze the epidemic characteristics of LSD from 2006 to 2023,revealing its seasonal patterns,transmission direction trends,and distribution of spatiotemporal clusters.These findings provide critical insights for predicting futur

关 键 词：牛结节性皮肤病(LSD) 流行特征 季节性趋势分析 方向分布分析 时空聚集性分析 

分 类 号：S858.23[农业科学—临床兽医学]