“双碳”目标下中国风力发电的潜力预估、电力运输与能量储存的影响  

Capacity of wind power generation and impacts of electricity transmission and energy storage on achieving"dual carbon"goal in China

作　　者：陈祉叶 曾嘉伟 王怡静 王戎 CHEN Zhiye;ZENG Jiawei;WANC Yijing;WANG Rong(Department of Environmental Science and Engineering,Fudan University,Shanghai 200438,China)

机构地区：[1]复旦大学环境科学与工程系,上海200438

出　　处：《科技导报》2024年第19期47-58,共12页Science & Technology Review

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFF0802504);国家自然科学基金项目(41877506)。

摘　　要：基于时空高分辨的综合数字地理信息,分析了中国风能资源的时空分布及电力运输和能量储存对风力发电潜力的影响。结果表明:(1)中国风力资源存在显著的地域差异,华北和西南地区风力资源相对丰富,合理的清洁资源开发布局及基础配套设施建设可提高中国对风力资源的利用效率。(2)以1/120°×1/30°的空间网格为单位,基于风能资源的时空分布和小时波动发用电负荷,统筹考虑电力运输和电力储存等基础设施的建设,评估了中国风力发电的潜力。全国风力发电潜力在不同土地利用情景下有显著差异,考虑全部土地可利用情景时,风电潜力每年最高可达50PW·h,在筛选可利用土地并优化电厂规模实现成本最低后,风力发电潜力约为4PW·h。中国西部地区表现出较大的风力发电潜力,而东部地区的发电潜力相对较低,在不考虑电力运输与储存情景下,部分地区的发电效率较低。因此,未来的研究需要实现风力发电与电力运输、能源储存配套设施的统筹规划,以确保经济利益最大化的同时实现减排目标。(3)风力发电可显著降低二氧化碳排放,考虑电力运输和能量储存后,能够使风力发电可实现的CO_(2)减排量增加约26%,同时降低84%的CO_(2)减排边际成本,其中西北地区CO_(2)减排量的增幅可达2倍以上,减排成本降低95%以上。预计到2060年,中国为了实现碳中和,需要增加输电和储能的基础设施建设来实现能源平衡,华北和西北地区将成为中国风力发电的主要地区。This study employs high-resolution comprehensive digital geographic information to analyze the spatiotemporal differences of wind power resources and predict the impacts of electricity transmission and energy storage on the capacity of carbon emissions abatement by deploying wind power in China.The findings of this study include:1)High capacities of wind power are identified over North China and Southwest China.The efficiency of wind power generation can be largely enhanced by improving the spatial layout of power installation and securing the development of electricity transmission and energy storage facilities.2)The potential of wind power generation in China is predicted based on spatial and temporal distributions of wind power resources and hourly wind power generation loads at a spatial resolution of 1/120o x1/30°.with consideration of infrastructure construction such as electricity transportation and energy storage.The national wind power generation potential varies significantly between scenarios with dfferent assumptions on land use.The projected capacity of wind power generation may reach 50 PW·h per year by assuming that all land pixels can be used for power generation,whereas it will decrease to 4 Pwh per year if filtering pixels suitable for wind power generation and optimizing the size of power plants under cost minimization.Provinces in the west of China are predicted to the hotspot areas of wind power generation while the potential of wind power generation is relatively lower.The efficiency of power generation will be largely reduced in the absence of electricity transportation and energy storage.Future studies should focus on improving planning and layout of wind power plants by coordinating the supporting facilities of electricity transportation and energy storage,which can increase the economic benefits when achieving the emission abatement targets.3)Deploying wind power will significantly reduce carbon emissions in China.When the facilties of electricity transmission and energy storage are fu

关 键 词：风力发电 电力运输 能量储存 碳减排 减排成本 

分 类 号：TM614[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]