冷战后美国联盟体系扩张的逻辑  

The Logic of the Expansion of the US Alliance System since the End of Cold War

作　　者：魏冰 刘丰 Wei Bing;Liu Feng

机构地区：[1]北京外国语大学国际关系学院 [2]清华大学国际关系学系

出　　处：《拉丁美洲研究》2024年第5期34-56,163,共24页Journal of Latin American Studies

摘　　要：在大国竞争不断加剧的背景下,美国近年来积极推动全球联盟体系扩张,这一现象可以用传统的权力制衡逻辑进行解释。然而,美国联盟体系扩张早在冷战结束之初就已经开始,当时美国在实力上遥遥领先其他国家。传统联盟理论假定联盟是用于制衡确定的对手,因而错误预测出美国联盟体系将在冷战结束和苏联解体后走向瘫痪或瓦解。实际上,在单极体系下,霸权国仍然会面临诸多不确定的安全风险,而联盟是其应对风险的有效工具。本文提出,冷战结束以来美国联盟体系的扩张服务于霸权护持的需要,但由于不同阶段的安全挑战不同,因此扩张的逻辑也不同:霸权维持阶段的扩张旨在制衡风险,霸权转移阶段的扩张则是为了制衡权力。其中,霸权维持阶段的扩张可能对潜在对手的安全利益产生负面影响,最终将潜在对手转变为实际对手。从这个意义上看,美国联盟体系扩张是一个“自我实现的预言”,为美国霸权秩序的转型提供了内在的动力。In the context of great power competition,the United States has actively promoted the expansion of the global alliance system in recent years,which can be explained by the traditional logic of power balance.However,the expansion of the US alliance system began at the end of the Cold War,when the US was far ahead of other states in terms of power.Traditional alliance theory assumes that alliances are used to balance against specific adversaries,so these theorists wrongly predicted that the US alliance system would paralyse or collapse after the end of the Cold War.In fact,under the unipolar system,the hegemon still faces security risks,and the alliance is an effective tool to deal with them.This paper proposes that the expansion of the US alliance system in the post-Cold War era serves the need of hegemonic maintenance,but the logic of expansion varies due to different security challenges in different stages.The expansion in the hegemonic maintenance stage aims to balance risks,while the expansion in the hegemonic transition stage aims to balance power.Meanwhile,expansion in the hegemonic maintenance stage may have a negative impact on the security interests of potential adversaries,which will eventually turn potential adversaries into security threats.In this sense,the expansion of the US alliance system is a"self-fulilling prophecy"that provides internal impetus for the transition of the US hegemonic order.

关 键 词：联盟体系扩张 霸权护持 风险制衡 权力制衡 

分 类 号：D871[政治法律—政治学] D822[政治法律—外交学]