电子消费券的实体经济效应——来自银联“云闪付”的证据  

The Real Economic Effects of Electronic Consumption Vouchers:Evidence from Unionpay Platform

作　　者：习明明[1] 刘旭妍[1,2] 李婷 XI Ming-ming;LIU Xu-yan;LI Ting(Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanchang 330013;Jiangxi Branch of The People's Bank of China,Nanchang 330008,China)

机构地区：[1]江西财经大学应用经济学院(数字经济学院),江西南昌330013 [2]中国人民银行江西省分行,江西南昌330008

出　　处：《当代财经》2024年第11期12-26,共15页Contemporary Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金地区项目“基于两区制空间Durbin固定效应模型的地区资本结构对经济增长影响研究”(72264011);国家自然科学基金地区项目“基于同伴效应的网络经济中的从众行为及其特征研究”(71863011)。

摘　　要：政府消费券作为一种重要的经济刺激政策工具,设计初衷是激发市场活力,为受经济压力影响的企业提供必要的支持。为深入探究这一政策工具的实际效果,以江西省各级政府发放电子消费券为准自然实验,以2019—2022年江西银联“云闪付”平台签约的26.4万活跃商户共计96.8万观测数据为样本,构建多期双重差分和三重差分模型,考察政府发放电子消费券对实体商户经营的影响及作用机制,并且讨论政府电子消费券的社会福利效应。研究发现:第一,政府电子消费券对实体经济拉动的杠杆效应为1.308~3.250倍,消费券的弹性系数为0.152~0.395;第二,政府电子消费券主要通过价格歧视、薄利多销和品牌效应三个机制对实体商户经营产生正向影响;第三,政府电子消费券独特的发放与核销方式,既不会造成消费福利的挤出,也不会新增财政负担。因此,未来在提振国内市场需求时,应进一步细化政府电子消费券的投放渠道和机制,确保消费券能够精准地投放至目标群体,并高效地进行兑换,从而最大化其经济和社会效益。Government consumption vouchers serve as an important economic stimulus tool designed to invigorate the market and provide necessary support to businesses that are affected by economic pressures.In order to thoroughly investigate the actual effects of this policy tool,this paper conducts a quasi-natural experiment with the distribution of electronic consumption vouchers by various levels of governments in Jiangxi Province.Taking the data from 264,000 active merchants contracted with Jiangxi Unionpay platform from 2019 to 2022 of totaling 968,000 observation values as the samples,this study constructs multi-period difference-in-differences models and triple difference models to examine the impact of government-issued electronic consumption vouchers on the operations of physical merchants and their mechanisms of action,as well as to discuss the social welfare effects of government electronic consumption vouchers.The results show that:firstly,the leverage effect of government e-coupon on the real economy is between 1.308~3.250 times,and the elasticity coefficient of the coupon is between 0.152~0.395.Secondly,e-coupon mainly have a positive impact on the operation of physical merchants through the three mechanisms:price discrimination,small profits and good sales,and brand effects.Thirdly,the unique way of issuing and canceling government e-vouchers will neither cause the crowding out of consumer welfare nor increase the financial burden.Therefore,to further stimulate domestic market demand in the future,it is recommended to refine the distribution channels and mechanisms of government electronic consumption vouchers,ensure the accurate allocation of consumer vouchers to the target groups and efficient conversion,thereby maximizing their economic and social benefits.

关 键 词：电子消费券 实体经济效应 价格歧视 跨期替代 社会福利 

分 类 号：F812.7[经济管理—财政学]