中国区域终端能源电气化与社会公平耦合协调时空格局及影响因素  

Spatiotemporal patterns and influence factors of coupling coordination between regional final energy electrification and social equity in China

作　　者：吴蒙 周冯琦[1] 程进[1] 李海棠 WU Meng;ZHOU Fengqi;CHENG Jin;LI Haitang(Institute of Ecology and Sustainable Development,Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences,Shanghai 200020,China)

机构地区：[1]上海社会科学院生态与可持续发展研究所,上海200020

出　　处：《资源科学》2024年第9期1793-1806,共14页Resources Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目(19CGL072)。

摘　　要：【目的】分析区域能源转型与社会公平耦合协调时空格局及关键影响因素,可以为中国区域能源公正转型和新时代新能源高质量发展提供管理评价方法及应对政策参考。【方法】引入能源政策可持续性评估框架(EPSEF),综合终端能源电气化率、居民收入分配和5类能源正义关键影响因素,构建能源转型社会公平评价模型,分析2001—2020年中国30个省份终端能源电气化与社会公平耦合协调时空格局及关键影响因素。【结果】研究显示:(1)2001—2020年中国区域终端能源电气化率提升呈现西部地区(+7.23%)>东部地区(+5.51%)>中部地区(+4.77%)>东北地区(-0.42%),社会公平评分变化则呈现东部地区(+3.90)>中部地区(+3.61)>西部地区(+3.10)>东北地区(+2.20);(2)“十五”至“十三五”时期,中国区域终端能源电气化与社会公平耦合协调发展已由低水平耦合和拮抗状态为主转入磨合状态为主,并呈现“两端窄,中间宽”的梭形结构,即中级协调和轻度失调省份较少,勉强协调和初级协调省份较多;(3)2001—2020年中国区域终端能源电气化转型过程中社会参与和能源贫困两方面显著改善,劳动就业、公共健康和环境污染是面临的共性短板。【结论】当前中国可再生能源发展亟需补齐欠发达地区社会公平协同改善的短板,局部地区能源转型与社会公平耦合协调发展存在波动性或“区域化”失调,可能与能源基础设施协同建设滞后、电力市场消纳能力有限、资源型城市收缩、能源发展环境溢出效应等因素有关。国家政策干预对提升区域电能普遍服务发挥显著促进作用,但未来仍需进一步拓展并强化劳动就业、公共健康、环境污染等能源正义关键因素的协同改善。[Objective] This study aimed to evaluate the spatiotemporal patterns and key influencing factors of the coupling and coordination between regional energy transformation and social equity,in order to provide evaluation methods and management policies for China's regional energy justice and high-quality development of new energy in the new era.[Methods] By introducing the Energy Policy Sustainability Assessment Framework(EPSEF) and considering the terminal energy electrification rate,income distribution,and five key influencing factors related to energy justice,a comprehensive evaluation model was constructed to evaluate the spatial-temporal characteristics and key influencing factors of the coupling and coordination of regional terminal energy electrification and social equity in China from 2001 to 2020.[Results](1) From 2001 to 2020,the increase of electrification rate of terminal energy showed a trend of the western region(+7.23%) > the eastern region(+5.51%) > the central region(+4.77%) > the northeastern region(-0.42%).The improvement of social equity showed a trend of the eastern region(+3.90) > the central region(+3.61) > the western region(+3.10) > the northeastern region(+2.20).(2) The coupling and coordination degrees have entered the adjustment stage in the 13th Five Year Plan period,and presented a shuttle shape of narrow at both ends and wide in the middle,with fewer medium-level coordination and mild imbalance provinces,and more barely coordinated and primary coordination provinces.(3) From 2001 to 2020,social participation and energy poverty had significantly improved in most regions,while labor employment,public health,and environmental pollution were the areas commonly had shortcomings.[Conclusion] China's renewable energy development urgently needs to address the shortcomings of coordinated improvement of social equity in underdeveloped areas.Currently,there are fluctuations or “regionalized” imbalances in the coordinated development of energy transformation and social equity in some regions,w

关 键 词：能源正义 能源转型 社会公平 终端能源电气化 可再生能源 中国 

分 类 号：F426.2[经济管理—产业经济] F426.61