中国货运保险非均衡发展格局及影响因子分析  

Unbalanced development pattern and its influencing factor detection of China's cargo insurance

作　　者：叶士琳 王佳韡[3] 祁新华[2] 陈奕鑫 蒋自然 YE Shilin;WANG Jiawei;QI Xinhua;CHEN Yixin;JIANG Ziran(Fujian Provincial Key Laboratory for Subtropical Resources and Environment,Fujian Normal University,Fuzhou 350117,China;Institute of Geography,Fujian Normal University,Fuzhou 350117,China;College of Cultural Tourism and Public Administration,Fujian Normal University,Fuzhou 350117,China;College of Geography and Environmental Sciences,Zhejiang Normal University,Jinhua 321004,Zhejiang,China)

机构地区：[1]福建师范大学福建省亚热带资源与环境重点实验室,福州350117 [2]福建师范大学地理研究所,福州350117 [3]福建师范大学文化旅游与公共管理学院,福州350117 [4]浙江师范大学地理与环境科学学院,金华321004

出　　处：《地理研究》2024年第11期3058-3071,共14页Geographical Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42101297);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(22YJCZH070);福建省自然科学基金项目(2023J01286);福建省科技厅省属公益类科研专项项目(2023R1002005)。

摘　　要：货物运输保险是物流运输风险管理的重要手段,也是维护供应链韧性与物流业健康发展的基本保障。基于城市级货运保险统计数据,运用Dagum基尼系数和核密度估计法分析了2005—2021年中国货运保险非均衡发展格局及动态特征,并采用地理探测器对其主要影响因子进行定量识别。研究表明:①中国货运保险发展水平整体呈波动式缓慢增长趋势,东部、中部和东北地区实现不同程度增长,西部地区出现下降趋势。②中国货运保险发展水平的空间非均衡性和集聚性显著,高水平城市表现出向博台线和胡焕庸线围合的第1象限集聚分布趋势。③中国货运保险发展水平整体空间差距悬殊并呈持续加剧趋势,其主要来源为地区间差距。④中国大部分城市的货运保险长期处于低水平发展状态,省会城市(含直辖市、副省级城市)的货运保险发展水平明显高于地级城市。⑤对外贸易规模、市场活力、市场主体数量、金融资本区位商、货运规模、经济水平和经济开放度是中国货运保险非均衡发展的主要驱动因子。影响因子交互作用明显,保险供给和市场需求维度因子是主导交互因子的重要组成。本研究有望为中国货运保险业空间布局优化与高质量发展提供决策参考。Cargo insurance is a crucial means of risk management for logistics transportation,and also a fundamental guarantee for maintaining the resilience of the supply chain and the healthy development of the logistics industry.However,compared to other types of insurance,there is a significant lack of attention from various sectors of society and scholars toward freight insurance,and empirical research from a geographical spatiotemporal perspective is even rarer.This study constructs an evaluation index system for assessing the development level of cargo insurance.Then,based on the statistical data of urban cargo insurance,the Dagum Gini coefficient and kernel density estimation method utilized to analyze the unbalanced development pattern and dynamic characteristics of China's cargo insurance from 2005 to 2021.Additionally,Geodetector was employed to quantitatively identify its main influencing factors.The study reveals the following:(1)The overall development level of cargo insurance in China shows a fluctuating and slow growth trend,with varying degrees of growth in the eastern,central,and northeastern regions,and a declining trend in the western region.(2)The spatial unevenness and agglomeration of the development level of cargo insurance in China are significant,with high-level cities exhibiting a trend of agglomeration distribution in the first quadrant defined by the Bole-Taipei Line and the Hu Huanyong Line.(3)The overall spatial disparity of the development level of cargo insurance in China is stark and shows a continuous trend of exacerbation,primarily stemming from regional disparities.(4)Most cities in China have long been in a state of low-level development in terms of cargo insurance,with provincial capitals(including municipalities and sub-provincial cities)having a significantly higher level of cargo insurance development compared to prefecture-level cities.(5)The scale of foreign trade,market vitality,the number of market entities,freight volume,financial capital location quotient,economic level,and de

关 键 词：货物运输保险 影响因子 时空格局 地理探测器 物流业 

分 类 号：F259.2[经济管理—国民经济] F842.632