基于人为源排放与空气质量响应关系的源排放清单动态更新方法  

Method for Dynamic Updating of Source Emission Inventories Based on the Response Relationship Between Anthropogenic Source Emissions and Air Quality

作　　者：舍静 蒋莉 姚桂蓉 陈强[1,3] 李光耀[1] 朱禹寰 刘嘉 孙伟 SHE Jing;JIANG Li;YAO Gui-rong;CHEN Qiang;LI Guang-yao;ZHU Yu-huan;LIU Jia;SUN Wei(Key Laboratory for Semi-Arid Climate Change of the Ministry of Education,College of Atmospheric Sciences,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China;Gansu Appraisal Center for Ecology Environment&Engineering,Lanzhou 730000,China;Lanzhou University Applied Technology Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Lanzhou 730000,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州大学大气科学学院,半干旱气候变化教育部重点实验室,兰州730000 [2]甘肃省生态环境工程评估中心,兰州730000 [3]兰州大学应用技术研究院有限责任公司,兰州730000

出　　处：《环境科学》2024年第11期6267-6275,共9页Environmental Science

基　　金：兰州市科学技术局第二批科技计划项目(2022-2-15)。

摘　　要：污染源排放清单是分析污染成因、源解析以及科学制定大气污染防控策略的基础.目前清单构建方法主要关注清单的准确度和时空分辨率的提高,污染源排放清单存在明显的滞后性,迫切需要研究动态更新方法解决滞后性问题.为设计一种计算成本低,高效和高准确度的源排放动态清单更新方法,选择随机森林的气象标准化方法,捕捉污染物与人为源排放变化之间的响应关系,根据该响应关系以及所选取的基础清单设计了基于人为源排放与空气质量响应关系的多尺度排放清单更新构建方法(REQEI),以MEIC清单为例进行方法的验证和应用评估:首先,计算得到基于2015年MEIC清单的2016~2021年人为源排放与空气质量响应关系多尺度排放清单(REQEI_MEIC),通过横向比较法和模式验证法检验了REQEI_MEIC清单的适用性和合理性,从而证明该清单构建方法的可行性.结果表明,REQEI_MEIC清单和MEIC排放量与各地实际排放量偏差以及两清单的模式验证效果总体较为一致,在部分地区,REQEI_MEIC的排放量更接近实际排放量,并且污染物模拟效果也能得到一定改善.该清单构建方法在大大节省工作量的基础上,可以构建具有同等效果的污染物排放清单,并且可拓展性强,根据基础清单的特点进行优化,可用于构建不同时空尺度、不同精度以及各种污染物类型的排放清单;该方法通过人为源排放与空气质量响应关系以及空气质量变化特征快速推算清单,加快了清单更新速度,适用于实现现有清单的快速动态更新,能够在一定程度上减小排放清单时空局限性对污染成因分析带来的限制.Pollution source emission inventories are the basis for analyzing the causes of pollution,identifying the contribution of pollution sources,and scientifically formulating air pollution prevention strategies.The current inventory construction methods mainly focus on improving the accuracy and spatial and temporal resolution of the inventory,and there is an urgent need to look into dynamic updating methods to address the problem of lagging source emission inventories.In order to develop an effective and versatile method for the dynamic updating of source emission inventories,a meteorological normalization method based on random forests was chosen to capture the response relationship between pollutants and anthropogenic emissions.Based on the response relationship and the base emission inventory,the method for updating emission inventories based on the relationship between emissions and air quality(REQEI)was developed.Taking MEIC as the example,the REQEI_MEIC inventory was constructed using this method.The applicability and reasonableness of the REQEI_MEIC inventory was examined through the horizontal comparison method and the model validation method,so as to prove the feasibility of the inventory construction method.The results showed that the differences in pollutant emissions between the REQEI_MEIC and MEIC inventories were small,and the model validation effects of the two inventories were generally consistent.In some areas,the emissions of the REQEI_MEIC were closer to the actual emissions,and the pollutant modeling effect was more favorable.The inventory dynamic updating method can construct a relatively accurate pollutant emission inventory on the basis of greatly reducing the workload.The method quickly extrapolates the inventory through the relationship between anthropogenic source emissions and air quality response,accelerates the speed of inventory updating,is suitable for realizing the rapid dynamic updating of existing inventories,and can to a certain extent reduce the limitations imposed by the spatial

关 键 词：源排放清单动态更新 WRF-Chem模式 机器学习 气象标准化 大气污染 

分 类 号：X51[环境科学与工程—环境工程]