中美贸易摩擦冲击下中国沿海地区贸易韧性特征及影响因素分析  

Analysis on the Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Trade Resilience in China's Coastal Areas under the Impact of Sino-US Trade Friction

作　　者：郭厚华 谭俊涛 GUO Hou-hua;TAN Jun-tao(School of Geography,Geomatics and Planning,Jiangsu Normal University,Xuzhou 221116,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏师范大学地理测绘与城乡规划学院,江苏徐州221116

出　　处：《江苏商论》2024年第11期53-60,共8页Jiangsu Commercial Forum

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42201177);教育部人文社会科学基金项目(20YJCZH143);江苏高校哲学社会科学研究项目(2020SJA1024);江苏师范大学研究生科研与实践创新计划项目(2022XKT0095)。

摘　　要：多年来中美贸易往来在密切的同时摩擦不断,2018年新一轮的中美贸易战拉开帷幕,对中国的对外贸易产生了冲击。基于此,研究选取外向型经济良好、容易受到贸易冲击的中国沿海地区作为研究区域,借鉴区域经济韧性研究框架,引入贸易韧性研究,从抵抗性和恢复性两维度对中美贸易摩擦期间沿海地区的对外贸易韧性特征进行分析,同时进一步运用地理探测器探究沿海地区对外贸易韧性空间分异的影响因子。结果表明:(1)河北省和广西壮族自治区为“高抵抗-高恢复”区域,贸易韧性较好。山东省、上海市、浙江省和福建省属于“低抵抗-高恢复”区域,后期恢复性较好。辽宁省、天津市、江苏省、广东省和海南省则为“低抵抗-低恢复”区域,贸易韧性较差。(2)对贸易抵抗性解释度较高的是外贸依存度、出口占进出口总额比重和产业结构状况等因子;而出口占进出口总额比重、产业结构状况和与美国贸易联系程度等影响因素对贸易恢复性的解释程度较高。此外,交互探测结果还显示,大部分因子间的交互作用都增强了对贸易抵抗性和恢复性的影响,而且大多是双因子增强。最后,针对研究结论初步提出了中国沿海地区应对贸易摩擦、提升对外贸易韧性的相应对策。For many years,the trade between China and the United States has been close while experiencing constant friction.In 2018,a new round of China US trade war kicked off,which had an impact on China's foreign trade.Based on this,the study selected China's coastal areas with a strong outward oriented economy and susceptibility to trade shocks as the research area.Drawing on the framework of regional economic resilience research,trade resilience research was introduced to analyze the characteristics of foreign trade resilience in coastal areas during the Sino US trade friction from two dimensions:resistance and resilience.Furthermore,geographic detectors were used to explore the influencing factors of spatial differentiation of foreign trade resilience in coastal areas.The results indicate that:(1)Hebei Province and Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region are“high resistance high recovery”regions with good trade resilience.Shandong Province,Shanghai City,Zhejiang Province,and Fujian Province belong to the“low resistance high recovery”area,with good recovery in the later stage.Liaoning Province,Tianjin City,Jiangsu Province,Guangdong Province,and Hainan Province are“low resistance low recovery”regions with poor trade resilience.(2)Factors with high explanatory power for trade resistance include dependence on foreign trade,the proportion of exports to total imports and exports,and the state of industrial structure;Factors such as the proportion of exports to total imports and exports,industrial structure,and the degree of trade ties with the United States have a higher degree of explanation for trade recovery.In addition,the interaction detection results also showed that the interaction between most factors enhanced the impact on trade resistance and resilience,and most of them were dual factor enhancements.Finally,based on the research conclusions,corresponding measures were proposed for China's coastal areas to cope with trade frictions and enhance foreign trade resilience.

关 键 词：贸易韧性 抵抗性 恢复性 中美贸易战 沿海地区 

分 类 号：F75[经济管理—国际贸易]