人口流动、企业迁移与中央转移支付的空间配置效应  

Labor Migration,Firm Relocation,and Spatial Allocation of Central-to-Local Government Transfer Payments

作　　者：黄文彬[1] HUANG Wenbin(South China Agricultural University,510642)

机构地区：[1]华南农业大学经济管理学院,510642

出　　处：《财贸经济》2024年第11期39-55,共17页Finance & Trade Economics

基　　金：广东省哲学社会科学规划项目“区域平衡发展视角下广东各市财政支出的作用与优化研究:基于空间一般均衡模型的分析”(GD22YYJ14);广东省自然科学基金项目“区域协调发展视角下广东省省以下转移支付的作用与优化:基于量化空间均衡的研究”(2024A15150)。

摘　　要：基于量化空间均衡模型的分析大多聚焦于人口流动与商品贸易,忽视了企业迁移。本文构建了一个包含人口流动、企业迁移与商品贸易的空间一般均衡模型,研究中央转移支付的空间配置效应及其作用机制,进而优化中央转移支付的配置结构。研究发现:(1)全国层面来看,2016—2021年的中央转移支付造成了省份内部的人口流动和企业迁移不协调以及省份之间两者往低生产率地区流动的空间错配问题,在缩小区域经济差距3.32%的同时导致经济总产出降低了2.49%;(2)区域层面来看,中央转移支付缩小了东部地区的区域内经济差距,但扩大了中西部地区的区域内经济差距;(3)结构层面来看,一般性和生产性专项转移支付的变动造成了区域经济差距和经济总产出的降低,而民生性专项转移支付的作用效果相反;(4)三类转移支付对区域经济差距、经济总产出和社会福利的边际影响存在明显差异,中央转移支付的配置结构的优化方向取决于其政策目标。Policy effect evaluations based on quantitative spatial equilibrium models have largely focused on labor migration and commodity trade while neglecting the impact of firm relocation.Fajgelbaum et al.(2019)were the first to include labor migration and firm relocation into quantitative spatial equilibrium models,studying the spatial misallocation caused by tax rate differences across regions in the United States.Unlike those in the United States,local governments in China do not have the power to set tax rates which are uniformly determined by the central government.Inspired by their research,this paper evaluates the spatial allocation effects of central-to-local government transfer payments within a spatial general equilibrium framework that includes labor migration,firm relocation,and commodity trade.Since China implemented the tax-sharing system reform in 1994,the centralization of fiscal power has been strengthened,and the scale of transfer payments has expanded rapidly,significantly influencing local governments’fiscal expenditure behavior.In 2023,for example,the central government’s public budget expenditure reached 14.12 trillion yuan,of which 10.29 trillion yuan was allocated to local governments through transfer payments,accounting for 46.73%of local public budget revenue.Therefore,is of great importance to study how transfer payments affect regional economic disparities,total economic output,and social welfare through changes in the spatial allocation of labor and firms.The primary goal of transfer payments is to promote coordinated regional development,which is a key measure of social equity.Previous research has provided a wealth of empirical evidence for this positive policy effect.However,accompanying the narrowing regional economic disparities is the loss of economic efficiency caused by such transfer payments.Therefore,a study on the spatial allocation effects of transfer payments will enrich the discussion on the classic topic of the trade-off between equity and efficiency.Compared to existing

关 键 词：中央转移支付 人口流动 企业迁移 空间错配 量化空间均衡分析 

分 类 号：F812.2[经济管理—财政学]