土地、住房与城市经济增长:一个综合分析框架  

Land,Housing and Urban Economic Growth:An Integrated Analytical Framework

作　　者：李超[1] 普友少 LI Chao;PU Youshao(National Academy of Economic Strategy,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,100006;Institute for Sustainable Development,Macao University of Science and Technology,999078)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院财经战略研究院,100006 [2]澳门科技大学可持续发展研究所,中国999078

出　　处：《财贸经济》2024年第11期124-140,共17页Finance & Trade Economics

基　　金：国家社科基金“房地产市场调控政策的演变及影响效果研究”(23BJY077);中国社会科学院国情调研重大项目“房地产发展新模式的地方探索与改革路径”(GQZD2023008);中国社会科学院智库基础研究项目“市场情绪与房地产预期管理研究”(ZKJC240902)。

摘　　要：宏观经济与房地产市场的稳定发展离不开土地要素的支撑。在稳地价、稳房价和稳预期的政策背景下,本文通过构建土地、住房和经济增长的空间经济学分析框架,研究了地方政府的土地供给策略对我国城市经济增长和住房市场的综合影响。研究结论认为,在当前城市建设用地供给总量受约束的前提条件下,地方政府有激励采取改变土地供给结构的竞争策略来干预土地市场,即通过压低工业用地价格、提高工业用地出让比重的方式来实现土地引资,这在客观上促进了城市经济增长。但与此同时,地方政府干预土地供给结构时,往往是以压缩居住用地的供应比例为代价,这在一定程度上从供需两端推高了本地房地产价格。综合来看,本文结论可以在理论上解释为什么当前我国经济增长较快的城市和区域,其房地产价格也相对较高。基于研究结论,本文有针对性地提出了优化我国地方政府土地供给制度的相关政策建议。The land system has played an important role in China’s rapid economic growth and urbanization,profoundly affecting the living conditions and spending power of urban residents.Although the“Land-Driven Development”model appears to be unsustainable,and the central government is continuously strengthening overall constraints on urban land supply,local governments’preference for differentiated strategies in the supply of construction land remains largely unchanged.This paper first constructs a classic spatial general equilibrium model encompassing two regions and two sectors,attempting to place China’s land supply strategy,urban economic growth,and the development of the real estate market within a unified analytical framework.It theoretically analyzes the impact of local governments actively adjusting the construction land supply structure and intervening in the land market on local economic growth and housing prices.Subsequently,empirical research was conducted based on panel data of 284 prefecture-level and above cities from 2002 to 2020.The results indicate that local governments’strategy of increasing industrial land supply at the expense of reducing the supply of residential land will,on one hand,drive local economic growth by increasing the number of industrial enterprises and the employment population,and on the other hand,push up local housing prices by increasing the residents’income and decreasing the supply of residential land.At the same time,the land supply strategy of local governments exhibits an imitative competition effect spatially.The adjustment of land supply strategies in individual cities not only directly increases local economic output and housing price levels but also indirectly affects the economic growth and housing prices of adjacent regions.The conclusions of this paper affirm the active intervention of local governments in the land market over the past two decades,suggesting that such intervention can promote regional enterprise agglomeration,increase residents’income,an

关 键 词：土地供给 住房市场 经济增长 分析框架 

分 类 号：F290[经济管理—国民经济] F293.3