基于情景分析法的工商业储能经济性分析  

Economic analysis of industrial and commercial energy storage based on scenario analysis approach

作　　者：韦冬妮 杨燕 张玮琪 杨钊 刘桐 WEI Dongni;YANG Yan;ZHANG Weiqi;YANG Zhao;LIU Tong(Economic and Technical Research Institute,State Grid Ningxia Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Yinchuan Ningxia 750011,China)

机构地区：[1]国网宁夏电力有限公司经济技术研究院,宁夏银川750011

出　　处：《宁夏电力》2024年第5期1-7,共7页Ningxia Electric Power

基　　金：国网宁夏电力有限公司科技项目(5229JY230007)。

摘　　要：针对工商业储能经济性不足问题,构建了成本收益测算模型,研究不同情景下工商业储能的盈利情况。基于双因素学习曲线构建了成本预测模型,并分析了目前工商业储能的盈利模式。通过系统动力学构建了盈亏总模型,同时结合相关政策和数据划分了各发展阶段并测算了各阶段不同情景下的收益情况,进行了经济性分析并提出各阶段建议。通过算例验证了模型的可行性,并进一步分析得出结论,峰谷价差对经济性影响较大,调频服务价格影响较小,早期应加大峰谷价差确保其能健康发展,成熟后逐渐降低峰谷价差,在过程中通过调频服务价格引导其发展。Addressing the economic challenges of industrial and commercial energy storage,a cost-benefit estimation model is developed to study profitability across various scenarios.Based on a two-factor learning curve,a cost prediction model is established,and the current profitability model of industrial and commercial energy storage is analyzed.Additionally,a comprehensive profit and loss model is constructed through system dynamics.The study also integrates relevant policies and data to define development stages and assesses benefits within different scenarios for each stage,conducting economic analysis and offering suggestions.The feasibility of the model is verified through case studies,and further analysis shows that the peak-valley price differential significantly impacts economic viability,while frequency modulation service pricing has a lesser effect.Early stages should focus on increasing the peak-valley price differential to ensure healthy development,gradually reducing it as the market matures,guided by frequency regulation pricing.

关 键 词：工商业储能 系统动力学 情景分析 成本预测 收益分析 政策分析 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]