基于联立空间自回归的空铁客流时空分布研究  

Spatiotemporal Distribution of Air-Rail Passenger Flow Based on Simultaneous Spatial Auto-regressive Analysis

作　　者：陶智斌 冯雪松[1] 汪寒冰 黄子苏 雷翀骁 TAO Zhibin;FENG Xuesong;WANG Hanbing;LEI Chongxiao(School of Traffc and Transportation,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China)

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学交通运输学院,北京100044

出　　处：《综合运输》2024年第10期89-96,188,共9页China Transportation Review

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费(2022YJS064)。

摘　　要：在整合面板数据回归,联立方程方法和空间自回归模型的基础上,本研究进行联立空间自回归建模以分析我国铁路网络和航空网络客运量的时空耦合关系,提出一种在扰动情况下预测空铁客运量空间分布动态变化的方法。以分布于我国不同区域的15个城市为案例验证模型的有效性以及回归结果的稳健性。研究结果表明当前我国铁路网络和民航网络之间的合作关系大于竞争关系。政策驱动下经济水平的发展会同时产生诱增交通量和转移交通量进而影响我国铁路客运量和机场吞吐量的空间分布。此外,我国不同区域的经济政策影响存在显著的空间异质性。This research conducts simultaneous spatial autoregressive modeling which is able to predict the dynamic changes in the spatial distribution of the railway passenger flow and the aviation passenger flow under perturbations to analyze the spatiotemporal coupling correlation between passenger flows in railway and aviation.The robustness of the regression results and the effectiveness of the model are verified by utilizing ffteen cities distributed across diferent regions of mainland of China as case studies.The regression results indicate that the current cooperative relationship between Chinese railway network and civil aviation network is greater than the competitive relationship.The development of the economic level driven by policies simultaneously generates induced and diverted traffic,thereby affecting the spatial distribution of railway and aviation passenger fows.Furthermore,signifcant spatial heterogeneity exists in the impact of economic policies in diferent regions of China.

关 键 词：铁路客运量 机场吞吐量 联立空间自回归模型 区域联系 空间异质性 

分 类 号：U116[交通运输工程]