高铁与航空快递运输竞合关系研究  

On the Co-opetition Relationships Between High Speed Rail and Air Express Transportation

作　　者：雷渝 LEI Yu(Chengdu Metro Operation Co.,Ltd.,Chengdu 610000,China)

机构地区：[1]成都地铁运营有限公司,成都610000

出　　处：《综合运输》2024年第10期138-144,共7页China Transportation Review

摘　　要：为研究高铁与航空快递运输竞合关系,避免两者恶性竞争,导致多方亏损、快递运输市场可持续发展能力降低等问题,基于系统自组织理论,将政府、高铁、航空看作高铁与航空快递运输系统内的三大参与主体,基于Lotka-Volterra模型从系统主体间非线性相互作用出发,建立系统自组织动态演化系统模型,并利用系统动力学模型,构建高铁与航空快递运输系统自组织流率基本入树模型,得到仿真流图。根据初始情景仿真及敏感性检验结果,设置不同情景仿真分析,根据仿真分析结果,从提高系统发展阈值、提升主体增长率、扩大主体间合作效应为政府、高铁、航空提供了促进高铁与航空快递运输合理竞争、合作共赢的管理对策及建议。In order to study the co-opetitive relationship between high-speed rail and air express transportation,and avoid vicious competition between the two,resulting in multiple losses and the reduction of the sustainable development capability of the express transportation market,based on the system self-organization theory,the government,high-speed rail,and aviation are regarded as high-speed rail and air express.Based on the LotkaVolterra model,the three major participants in the transportation system establish a self-organized dynamic evolution system model based on the nonlinear interaction between system entities,and use the system dynamics model to construct a self-organized fow of high-speed rail and air express transportation systems.The rate is basically entered into the tree model,and the simulation fow diagram is obtained.According to the initial scenario simulation and sensitivity test results,set up diferent scenarios for simulation analysis.According to the simulation analysis results,from raising the system development threshold,increasing the growth rate of the main body,and expanding the cooperation efect between the main bodies,it provides the government,high-speed rail,and aviation with the promotion of high-speed rail and air express.Management countermeasures and suggestions for reasonable competition and win-win cooperation in transportation.

关 键 词：综合运输 竞合关系 LOTKA-VOLTERRA模型 流率基本入树模型 快递运输 

分 类 号：F532[经济管理—产业经济] F562[交通运输工程] U116