新兴产业与收缩城市复兴——基于劳动力市场的研究  

Emerging Industries and the Regrowth of Shrinking Cities-An Analysis Based on Local Labor Markets

作　　者：陈钊[1] 魏扬赟 CHEN Zhao;WEI Yangyun

机构地区：[1]复旦大学经济学院,上海200433

出　　处：《学术月刊》2024年第10期37-49,共13页Academic Monthly

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大专项“中国的产业政策研究:理论与实践”(2023JZDZ019)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：持续性的城市收缩是全球面临的挑战,但中国的收缩城市却部分地出现了人口的明显反弹,有必要探究中国收缩城市人口反弹背后的原因。新兴产业是经济发展的新引擎,相比于传统产业,新兴产业的发展更少受到原有发展条件的制约。对于人口持续流出的收缩城市,新兴产业可能给它们带来新的发展前景,为市场注入新活力。基于中国88个收缩城市,以此讨论新兴产业的发展对收缩城市人口反弹的作用,研究发现:新兴产业的发展对收缩城市的劳动力市场有显著的正向影响,其促进了城市人口的增长、就业的增加与工资的提升,且这些结论通过一系列稳健性检验后依然成立。机制分析表明,新兴产业对上下游传统产业的带动,是促进当地劳动力市场繁荣的重要渠道。研究结果为我们理解收缩城市的转型及新兴产业的作用提供了经验证据。The persistent urban shrinkage is a global challenge,but in China,some shrinking cities have experienced a significant rebound in population.This paper aims to explore the reasons behind the population rebound in shrinking cities in China.Emerging industries serve as the new engine of economic development.Compared to traditional industries,the development of emerging industries is less constrained by previous development conditions.For shrinking cities experiencing continuous population outflow,emerging industries may bring new development prospects and inject fresh vitality into the market.Therefore,based on 88 shrinking cities in China,this paper discusses the role of emerging industries in the population rebound of shrinking cities.The study finds that the development of emerging industries has a significant positive impact on the labor market of shrinking cities.Specifically,it promotes urban population growth,increases employment,and raises wages.With a series of robustness checks,the above conclusion stll holds.Mechanism analysis indicates that the driving force of emerging industries on the upstream and downstream traditional industries is an important channel for promoting the prosperity of the local labor market.This research provides empirical evidence for understanding the transformation of shrinking cities and the role of emerging industries.

关 键 词：战略性新兴产业 劳动力市场 收缩城市 

分 类 号：F42[经济管理—产业经济]