时空效应对农户气候适应性行为的影响及政策启示——基于Meta文献计量分析的证据  

Space-time Effect on Household Adaptation to Climate Change and Policy Implication:Evidence from Meta Bibliometric Analyses

作　　者：晁冉冉 宋春晓[2] 刘瑞峰[2] 马恒运[2] CHAO Ranran;SONG Chunxiao;LIU Ruifeng;MA Hengyun(College of Economics and Management,Qingdao Agricultural University,Qingdao 266109,China;College of Economics and Management,Henan Agricultural University,Zhengzhou 450046,China)

机构地区：[1]青岛农业大学经济管理学院,山东青岛266109 [2]河南农业大学经济与管理学院,郑州450046

出　　处：《地域研究与开发》2024年第5期94-102,共9页Areal Research and Development

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(72003057);河南省哲学社会科学规划项目(2022CJJ147);河南农业大学青年英才科研启动项目(30500742)。

摘　　要：基于44篇实证研究文献,运用Meta分析方法,探究中国农户气候变化适应性的影响因素及影响强度,考察各影响因素效应随时间推移的变化趋势,以及是否存在异质性及异质性来源。结果表明:(1)允许异质性存在时,信息获取渠道和气候变化认知均显著正向影响农户气候变化适应性。同时,性别、教育程度、家庭收入、务农经历、种植规模以及政府宣传支持等也决定农户是否采取适应性行为。(2)从时间维度看,多数影响因素研究的精度不断提高且效应量逐步趋于稳定,但部分因素的影响效应呈下降趋势;从空间维度看,农户气候变化适应性影响因素的方向和强度存在显著的空间异质性。(3)模型选择、变量测量、调查年份、研究区域、认识过程等是导致研究结论产生分歧的主要原因。因此,未来政策实施应以强化农户适应性能力为核心,研究层面应关注时间和空间等变量的调节效应。Based on 44 empirical studies,using meta-analysis method,this paper explores the influencing factors and influence intensity of Chinese farmers’adaptation to climate change,and examines the changing trend of the effects of various influencing factors over time,as well as whether there is heterogeneity and the source of heterogeneity.The results show that:(1)When heterogeneity is allowed,information channel and climate change perception significantly and positively affect farmers’adaptation to climate change and meanwhile,gender,education,income,farming experience,planting scale and public supports are also the main determinants of farmers’adaptive behavior.(2)From the perspective of time,the research accuracy of most of influencing factors is constantly improving and the effect size is gradually stabilizing,but the influence effect of some factors is declining.From the spatial dimension,there is significant spatial heterogeneity in the direction and intensity of the influencing factors of farmers’climate change adaptation.(3)Model selection,variable measurements,survey year,study area and understanding process are the main source of the heterogeneity of research conclusions on farmers’adaptation to climate change.The future policy implementation would pay attention to strengthening the adaptability of farmers,and the future studies should pay attention to the temporal and spatial moderating effect.

关 键 词：气候变化 适应性行为 影响因素 Meta分析 调节效应 

分 类 号：F326[经济管理—产业经济]