人口老龄化对碳排放强度的时空效应与影响路径研究  

Research on the Spatial-temporal Effects and the Influence Pathway of Population Aging on Carbon Emission Intensity

作　　者：李卓群 吉雪强 李豪豪 张跃松[1] LI Zhuoqun;JI Xueqiang;LI Haohao;ZHANG Yuesong

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学公共管理学院,北京100872 [2]中国人民大学人口与健康学院,北京100872

出　　处：《经济问题探索》2024年第11期58-77,共20页Inquiry Into Economic Issues

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“区域协同发展背景下京津冀住房市场跨域治理模式研究”(72274207),项目负责人:吕萍;中国人民大学“中央高校建设世界一流大学(学科)和特色发展引导专项资金”(2022066),项目负责人:李卓群。

摘　　要：基于2004—2020年30个省(区、市)的面板数据,研究运用空间杜宾模型与中介效应模型深入剖析人口老龄化对碳排放强度的影响。研究发现:(1)碳排放强度在省域间展现出显著的空间相关性和集聚效应,人口老龄化有效降低了本省碳排放强度,但对邻近省份却产生反向作用,此结论经检验具有稳健性;(2)动态视角下,人口老龄化持续推动区域碳减排工作,但其促进效果随时间逐渐减弱;(3)老龄化通过减少居民消费、加速新型城镇化进程及增强环境规制等途径降低碳排放,且其影响存在区域异质性,东西部地区受益于老龄化减排效应,而中部地区则相反,背后作用机制亦有所不同。研究价值:在老龄化背景下,推动低碳经济发展需实施人口高质量发展战略,促进产业转型与低碳消费理念,并依据区域差异制定针对性低碳政策,以实现绿色低碳经济的协调发展。Based on the panel data of 30 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities)from 2004 to 2020,this study applies the spatial Durbin model and mediation effect model to analyze the impact of population aging on carbon emission intensity.The results show that:(1)Carbon emission intensity shows significant spatial correlation and agglomeration effect among provinces,and population aging effectively reduces the carbon emission intensity of the home province,but has a reverse effect on neighboring provinces,which is tested to be robust.(2)From a dynamic perspective,population aging continues to promote regional carbon emission reduction,but its promoting effect gradually weakens with time.(3)Population aging reduces carbon emissions by reducing consumption,accelerating new urbanization,and enhancing environmental regulations,and its impacts are regionally heterogeneous,with the eastern and western regions benefiting from the reduction effect of aging,while the central region does the opposite,and the mechanisms behind the effect are also different.The research values are that in the context of aging,in order to promote the development of a low-carbon economy,it is necessary to implement the strategy of high-quality development of the population,promote industrial transformation and low-carbon consumption concepts,and formulate targeted low-carbon policies according to the regional differences.therefore,to realize the coordinated development of a green low-carbon economy.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 碳排放强度 时间效应 空间效应 中介效应 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学] X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]