南四湖不同起调水位汛期调水风险传导规律  

Study on the water environment risk conduction of water diversion during flood season at different starting water levels of the Nansihu Lake

作　　者：张晨[1] 王超跃 杨蕊 李旭东[3] 吴时强[2] ZHANG Chen;WANG Chaoyue;YANG Rui;LI Xudong;WU Shiqiang(State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Intelligent Construction and Operation,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300350,China;The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention,Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210029,China;Pearl River Water Resources Institute,Pearl River Water Resources Commission of the Ministry of Water Resources,Guangzhou 510611,China)

机构地区：[1]天津大学水利工程智能建设与运维全国重点实验室,天津300350 [2]南京水利科学研究院水灾害防御全国重点实验室,江苏南京210029 [3]水利部珠江水利委员会珠江水利科学研究院,广东广州510611

出　　处：《水科学进展》2024年第5期817-829,共13页Advances in Water Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(52079089);国家重点研发计划资助项目(2018YFC0407203)。

摘　　要：南水北调东线工程通水以来,有效缓解了山东半岛等地的缺水问题,但水资源供需矛盾依然突出,汛期调水将成为解决该矛盾的方式之一。汛期调水时,湖周河道开闸泄洪,非汛期积累于河道中的污染物随水流下泄入湖,使得流域水环境风险显著增加。为科学支撑东线后续工程汛期调水水环境风险管控和探究湖区内部风险传导机制,以南水北调东线调蓄湖泊南四湖上级湖段为例,构建水环境风险空间传导分析模型,计算相邻子湖区处于不同风险状态组合的概率,定量评价汛期调水时南四湖上级湖流域水环境风险状态,探讨丰、平、枯3种水平年起调水位下水环境风险在南四湖上级湖的传导规律。结果表明:丰水年高水位调水时,南四湖上级湖水环境风险值最小,枯水年最大;高、中水位调水时,呈由低风险传导至中风险、再传导至高风险的逐步传导模式,而低水位调水时,风险由低风险直接传导至高风险;以平水年为例,白马河区至万福河区93%概率为低—中风险增强型传导、7%概率为低—高风险增强型传导。Since the implementation of the Eastern Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project,it has effectively mitigated water shortages in regions like the Shandong Province.However,the contradiction between the supply and demand for water resources remains prominent.Floodwater transfer is likely to be one of the ways to solve the contradiction,but if floodwater transfer is considered,the river around the lake will open flood gates,and pollutants in the river will be leaked into the lake with the water flow,which will greatly increase the risk for the water environment in the basin.To scientifically support the flood season water environmental risk control of the East Route follow-up project and explore the risk transmission mechanism within the lake district,we employed a spatial conduction analysis model for water environment risk,focusing on the upper lake of Nansihu Lake,to quantitatively assess the water environment risk status.The probability of adjacent sub-lakes in different risk state combinations is presented the conduction patterns of water environment risk during floodwater conductions under three distinct starting water levels.The results reveal a notable consistency in risk conduction between the southern and northern parts of the upper lake.The results show that the environmental risk value of the upper lake of Nansihu Lake is the smallest when the water is transferred at high water level in a wet year and the highest in a dry year.In the case of high and medium water level water transfer,the risk is gradually transmitted from low risk to medium risk and then to high risk,while in the case of low water level water transfer,the risk is directly transmitted from low risk to high risk.For example,from Baima River to Wanfu River,the probability of low-medium risk enhanced transmission is 93%,and the probability of low-high risk enhanced transmission is 7%.

关 键 词：风险传导 汛期调水 起调水位 风险分析模型 南水北调后续工程 

分 类 号：TV697.1[水利工程—水利水电工程]