山地都市区景观生态风险:时空动态及SSPs-RCPs流转情景  

Ecological Risk in the Mountainous Metropolis of Chongqing:Historical Assessment and Flows of SSPs-RCPs Scenarios

作　　者：魏梦雨 卞鸿雁[1,2,3] 高洁 张路金 贾润熙 李昊霖 王琳涌 WEI Mengyu;BIAN Hongyan;GAO Jie;ZHANG Lujin;JIA Runxi;LI Haolin;WANG Linyong(School of Geographical Sciences,Southwest University,Chongqing 400715,China;Chongqing Jinfo Mountain Karst Ecosystem National Observation and Research Station,Chongqing 400715,China;Chongqing Key Laboratory of Karst Environment,Chongqing 400715,China)

机构地区：[1]西南大学地理科学学院,重庆400715 [2]重庆金佛山喀斯特生态系统野外科学观测研究站,重庆400715 [3]岩溶环境重庆市重点实验室,重庆400715

出　　处：《水土保持学报》2024年第5期353-363,共11页Journal of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(42101296);重庆市自然科学基金面上项目(CSTB2023NSCQ-MSX0041);西南大学先导计划青年团队项目(SWU-XDJH202306)。

摘　　要：[目的]重庆是位于西南丘陵腹地的特大都市区,人口集聚及粗放的经济发展导致城市景观的快速爬坡和蔓延,城乡二元及立体的空间结构,直接影响景观的结构、功能及可持续性,亟待开展生态风险的时空动态、坡谱特征及未来流转情景的预测。[方法]基于1990-2020年及SSPs-RCPs的土地利用/覆被数据,整合景观生态风险评估模型,刻画重庆市的景观生态风险的时空动态及爬坡规律,预测2035年和2050年SSPs-RCPs 5种情景的生态风险及空间流转特征。[结果](1)重庆生态风险指数由1990年的0.14下降到2020年0.12,生境质量总体提升,呈自然景观(除林地)>人造景观的生态风险,其中城市景观随着城-乡的密度递减,生态风险呈递增趋势,草地的生态风险呈反向梯度;(2)渝东北和东南的大巴山及武陵山生态屏障区的风险低,渝西南及河谷丘陵区高,低和较低风险占全域面积90%以上;(3)89.4%的景观分布于坡度≥5°的地区,分布于坡度>7.5°的生态屏障区的修复工程,显著降低高坡度水土流失或石漠化等风险;(4)比较2035年和2050年SSPs-RCPs的生态风险及空间流转情景,SSP1的发展路径最可持续,城市景观爬坡及蔓延区的生态风险将继续增加,长江沿岸消落带和武陵山、大娄山的陡坡区和矿山的治理及修复将有效降低风险。[结论]山地都市区的景观可持续亟待科学-实践-政策的协同治理、科学的景观规划及管理与跨部门和公众的协作。[Objective]Chongqing is a mega-metropolis located in the southwestern hilly region.The rising population and extensive economic development have led to rapid urban landscape ascent and expansion,resulting in a dual urban-rural and 3D spatial structure directly influencing the landscape's configuration,functionality,and sustainability.It is urgent to conduct spatiotemporal dynamics,sloping characteristics,and future scenario predictions for regional ecological risk.[Methods]Based on the use of land use/cover data from 1990-2020 and SSPs-RCPs(2035 and 2050),integrate the landscape ecological risk assessment model,portray the time and space dynamics and climbing laws of landscape ecological risks in Chongqing,predict the ecological risk and the flows of 5 SSPs-RCPs in 2035 and 2050.[Results](1)The ecological risk index in Chongqing decreased from 0.14 in 1990 to 0.12 in 2020,indicating an overall improvement in habitat quality.Ecological risk was higher in natural landscapes(excluding forests),compared to artificial landscapes(cultivated land and built-up land),with urban landscapes showing an increasing ecological risk trend as urban-rural density decreased.Notably,grasslands exhibited an inverse ecological risk gradient.(2)The ecological risk was low in the northeast and southeast regions of Chongqing,including the Daba and Wuling Mountainous regions.In contrast,the southwestern region and hilly river valleys had high ecological risk.Low and moderately low-risk areas accounted for over 90%of the entire region.(3)Approximately 89.4%of landscapes were distributed in areas with a slope of≥5°,and ecological restoration efforts in ecological barrier zones with a slope of>7.5°significantly reduced risks associated with steep slope erosion or rocky desertification.(4)Comparing ecological risks and spatial transition scenarios for 2035 and 2050 under different SSPs-RCPs,SSP1 demonstrated the most sustainable development pathway.The climbing and spreading of urban landscapes would lead to increased ecological risk,whil

关 键 词：景观可持续 景观指数 生态风险评估 SSPs-RCPs 重庆都市区 

分 类 号：X826[环境科学与工程—环境工程]