泸州市2018—2022年人间布鲁菌病的时空分布特征及发病预测  

Spatio-temporal distribution characteristics and incidence prediction of human brucellosis in Luzhou City from 2018 to 2022

作　　者：林洪羽 王小娟 黄瑜璐 刘利[3] 彭浩 苟钊 LIN Hongyu;WANG Xiaojuan;HUANG Yulu;LIU Li;PENG Hao;GOU Zhao(Office of Emergency Management,Luzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Luzhou,Sichuan 646300,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]泸州市疾病预防控制中心应急办,四川泸州646300 [2]南京医科大学公共卫生学院 [3]四川中医药高等专科学校

出　　处：《医学动物防制》2024年第10期974-978,共5页Journal of Medical Pest Control

基　　金：四川中医药高等专科学校公共卫生应急科研创新团队项目(TD-2022-2)。

摘　　要：目的了解泸州市布鲁菌病(简称布病)的流行特征,探究疫情时空聚集情况,预测2023年的发病例数。方法采用均数、中位数、四分位间距描述定量资料,采用率或占比描述定性资料;利用空间自相关分析和时空重排扫描探索时空聚集;采用泊松分布和移动中位数法预测发病例数。结果2018—2022年泸州市共报告布病病例60例,年度变化百分比为46.30%(95%CI:0.3130~0.6290,P=0.0015)。预测2023年布病病例数为29例(95%CI:20.0000~42.0000)。2018、2020和2021年全局空间自相关分析莫兰指数(Moran′s I)为正值,分别为0.1181、0.1595和0.4254,且均P<0.001。时空重排扫描显示聚集区域在纳溪区、江阳区、龙马潭区和古蔺县,发病风险高(RR:9.4300~203.0100,LLR:4.2355~13.3033,P=0.0008)。男性病例数占76.67%,病例年龄中位数为52岁,41.67%的病例从事牛羊养殖和宰杀工作。结论泸州市布病疫情呈上升趋势,45岁以上且从事牛羊养殖、屠宰、餐饮服务的男性为重点人群,建议加强监测和职业人群的健康宣教工作。Objective To understand the epidemiological characteristics of brucellosis in Luzhou City,explore the spatio-temporal clustering of the epidemic,and predict the number of cases in 2023.Methods The mean,median,and interquartile range were used to describe the quantitative data,and the rate or proportion was used to describe the qualitative data.Spatial autocorrelation analysis and spatio-temporal rearrangement scanning were used to explore spatio-temporal clustering.Poisson distribution and moving median method were used to predict the number of cases.Results From 2018 to 2022,a total of 60 cases of brucellosis were reported in Luzhou City,with an annual percent change of 46.30%(95%CI:0.3130-0.6290,P=0.0015).The number of brucellosis cases in 2023 was predicted to be 29(95%CI:20.0000-42.0000).The Moran′s I of global spatial autocorrelation analysis in 2018,2020,and 2021 was positive,which was 0.1181,0.1595,and 0.4254,respectively,and all P<0.001.The spatio-temporal rearrangement scanning showed that the clustering areas were in Naxi District,Jiangyang District,Longmatan District,and Gulin County,with a high risk of disease(RR:9.4300-203.0100,LLR:4.2355-13.3033,P=0.0008).Among them,male cases accounted for 76.67%,the median age of the cases was 52 years old,and 41.67%of the cases were engaged in cattle and sheep breeding and slaughtering.Conclusion The brucellosis epidemic in Luzhou City is on the rise.Men over 45 years old and engaged in cattle and sheep breeding,slaughtering,and catering services are the key groups.It is suggested to strengthen the monitoring and health education for occupational groups.

关 键 词：布鲁菌病 流行特征 时空聚集分析 预警阈值 预测 

分 类 号：R516.7[医药卫生—内科学]