基于熵权TOPSIS的新疆农业水土资源承载力时空动态分析  

Spatial-Temporal Dynamic Analysis of the Carrying Capacity of Agricultural Water and Soil Resources in Xinjiang Based on Entropy Weighted TOPSIS

作　　者：冉晓凤 RAN Xiaofeng(College of Economic and Management,Tarim University,Alear 843300,China)

机构地区：[1]塔里木大学经济与管理学院,新疆阿拉尔843300

出　　处：《水资源开发与管理》2024年第11期27-33,共7页Water Resources Development and Management

摘　　要：农业水土资源是农业生产活动不可或缺的基础,为客观分析区域农业水土资源承载能力,本文构建了包含农业水土资源、社会、经济、生态系统的农业水土资源承载力评价指标体系,运用熵权TOPSIS模型,对新疆14个地(州、市)2010-2021年农业水土资源承载力进行时空分析。结果显示,新疆农业水土资源承载力与经济发展水平、水土资源利用效率和自然禀赋存在关联;新疆农业水土资源承载力总体上呈上升趋势,变化速率为0.0287,其中,乌鲁木齐市的承载力呈现出显著的上升趋势,而克孜勒苏柯尔克孜自治州(以下简称“克州”)的承载力则表现出明显的降低趋势,变化速率分别为0.0333和-0.0095;从空间分布上看,新疆的农业水土资源承载力呈现出北疆高、南疆低的特点,在研究期间,南疆的农业水土资源承载力逐渐降低,而北疆则逐渐上升。研究结果可为新疆农业水土资源可持续利用提供参考。Water and soil resources are indispensable foundations for agricultural production activities.To objectively analyze the carrying capacity of regional agricultural water and soil resources,this paper constructs an evaluation index system for the carrying capacity of agricultural water and soil resources encompassing social,economic,and ecological dimensions.Utilizing the entropy weighted TOPSIS model,the paper conducts a spatial-temporal analysis of the carrying capacity of agricultural water and soil resources in 14 prefectures and cities of Xinjiang from 2010 to 2021.The results show that the carrying capacity of Xinjiang’s agricultural water and soil resources is correlated with the level of economic development,the efficiency of water and soil resource utilization,and natural endowments;overall,the carrying capacity shows an upward trend with a change rate of 0.0287.Specifically,Urumqi exhibits a significant upward trend,while the Kizilsu Kirghiz Autonomous Prefecture(hereafter referred to as“Kezhou”)shows a noticeable downward trend,with change rates of 0.0333 and-0.0095,respectively.Spatially,the carrying capacity of agricultural water and soil resources in Xinjiang is characterized by higher levels in northern Xinjiang and lower levels in southern Xinjiang.During the study period,the carrying capacity in southern Xinjiang gradually decreased,while it gradually increased in northern Xinjiang.This research can provide references for the sustainable utilization of agricultural water and soil resources in Xinjiang.

关 键 词：农业水土资源 承载力 熵权 TOPSIS 新疆 

分 类 号：TV213.9[水利工程—水文学及水资源]