委托—代理关系分歧与中东地区武装组织的策略选择  

Divergences in Principal-Agent Relationships and Strategic Choices of Armed Groups in the Middle East

作　　者：朱哿帆 佘纲正 Zhu Gefan;She Gangzheng(Department of International Relations,Tsinghua University)

机构地区：[1]清华大学社会科学学院国际关系学系

出　　处：《国际关系研究》2024年第5期70-96,157,158,共29页Journal of International Relations

摘　　要：自冷战以来,武装组织对许多国家的建构与稳定产生了巨大的影响,其在国际秩序与地区安全中的地位和作用也愈发受到关注。现有文献多从作为委托方的国家视角来考察其与武装组织之间的关系,相对忽视了非国家武装行为体自身的行为逻辑。在既有研究的基础上,本文关注武装组织作为代理方(或“被委托方”)所具有的能动性和自主性,通过考察委托—代理关系出现分歧时武装组织的策略选择,分析其会基于何种战略考量处理与委托方的关系。本文根据“反叛行为”和“反对表态”将武装组织在和委托方国家出现分歧后的行为分为“追随”“背离”“退出”“抗议”四种。在委托—代理关系出现严重分歧时,武装组织会首先评估自身是否面临迫在眉睫的生存威胁。在保障短期生存的前提下,武装组织会研判自身现有军事实力和军事潜力在“继续追随”情境下所可能产生的变化,从而最终选择不同的行为策略。借助对中东地区多个非国家武装行为体相关案例的考察,本文尝试打开武装组织决策制定的黑箱。这不仅有助于进一步理解和研判武装组织的行为,也能更加全面地把握动荡地区的安全格局与秩序演进。Since the Cold War, armed groups have had a great impact on the construction and stability of many countries, and their status and role in the international order and regional security have recieved increasing attention. Previous studies have predominantly analyzed the evolving relationship between states and armed groups through the lens of the state as the primary actor, often overlooking the perspectives and motivations of non-state actors themselves. Building upon existing research, this article delves into the agency and autonomy of armed groups as independent entities within the principal-agent framework, exploring the strategic considerations that guide their decision-making when their interests diverge from those of their principals. By categorizing the responses of armed groups to disagreements with their principals as “following”,“deviating”, “withdrawing” and “rebelling”, this article offers a structured framework for understanding their behaviors and stances in complex relationships. It examines how armed groups assess existential threats to their survival and evaluate the potential impact on their military capabilities when faced with conflicting directives from their principals, ultimately influencing their strategic choices. Through a case study approach focusing on non-state actors in the Middle East, this article seeks to illuminate the decision-making processes of armed groups, thereby unveiling the intricacies of their behavior logic. By doing so, it not only contributes to a deeper understanding of armed groups but also provides a more comprehensive analysis of security dynamics and order evolution in the turbulent Middle East region. This will not only help to further understand and examine the behavior of armed groups, but also provide a more comprehensive grasp of the evolution of security patterns and order in the volatile region.

关 键 词：武装组织 委托—代理关系 代理方自主性 安全合作 中东地区 

分 类 号：D815.4[政治法律—国际关系]