基于ARIMA-BP组合模型的管道耗电量预测技术研究  

Research on prediction technology of pipeline power consumption based on ARMIA-BP combination model

作　　者：张舒 ZHANG Shu(NO.7 Oil Production Plant of Daqing Oilfield Co.,Ltd.)

机构地区：[1]大庆油田有限责任公司第七采油厂,黑龙江省大庆市163515

出　　处：《石油石化节能与计量》2024年第11期45-50,57,共7页Energy Conservation and Measurement in Petroleum & Petrochemical Industry

摘　　要：为实现管道耗电量的精准预测,对输油管道的节能评价和能效对标提供技术支撑,在收集管道日耗电量相关特征的基础上,先采用ARIMA模型实现了对耗电量线性部分的预测,随后建立了多输入单输出的单隐含层BP网络模型,用于预测耗电量的非线性部分,将两者有机结合,提高了小样本环境下耗电量的中长期预测效果。结果表明:不同管道筛选出的主控特征略有不同,日输量与耗电量的相关性最强;ARIMA-BP组合模型耗电量的预测效果最佳,1^(#)管道的平均相对误差为0.76%,2^(#)管道的平均相对误差为1.42%;1^(#)管道的预测结果与实际结果相符,说明运行状态良好;2^(#)管道耗电量的实际值大于预测值,说明运行工况存在劣化现象。通过叶轮切削改造、局部更换泵部件、更换淘汰电动机等多项整改措施,提高了2^(#)管道的能效水平,预计日节电904~3618 kWh。In order to achieve accurate prediction of pipeline power consumption,in view of the energy conservation evaluation and energy efficiency of oil pipelines,the ARIMA model is used to predict the linear part of power consumption on the basis of collecting the related characteristics of daily power consumption for pipeline,and then the BP network model of single-hidden layer with multiinput and single output is established,which predicts the non-linear part of power consumption,and improves the medium and long term prediction effect of power consumption in a small sample environment by the organic combination.The results show that the main control characteristics of different pipelines are slightly different,and the correlation between daily transmission and power consumption is the strongest.The prediction effect on the power consumption of ARIMA-BP combination model is best.The average relative error of 1^(#)pipeline and 2^(#)pipeline is 0.76%and 1.42%respectively.If the predicted results of 1^(#)pipeline are consistent with the actual results,the operation is in good condition.If the actual value of 2^(#)pipeline power consumption is greater than the predicted value,there is deterioration in operating conditions.Through a number of corrective measures such as impeller cutting transformation,partial replacement of pump parts,replacement of eliminated motors and other measures,the energy efficiency level of 2^(#)pipeline has been improved and it is expected that the daily power saving can be 904~3618 kWh.

关 键 词：管道 耗电量预测 ARIMA-BP组合模型 日输量 

分 类 号：TE832[石油与天然气工程—油气储运工程] TE89