西宁地区冠状动脉粥样硬化心脏病发病危险因素及风险模型构建  

Risk factors and risk prediction model for coronary atherosclerotic heart disease in Xining Area

作　　者：代小敏 陈礴 韩娜 郗汇聪 DAI Xiaomin;CHEN Bo;HAN Na;XI Huicong(Department of Coronary Heart Disease,Qinghai Specialized Hospital for Cardiovascular)

机构地区：[1]青海省心脑血管病专科医院冠心病一科,青海西宁810000

出　　处：《公共卫生与预防医学》2024年第6期109-112,共4页Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine

摘　　要：目的探究西宁地区冠状动脉粥样硬化心脏病发病危险因素及构建风险模型。方法选取2018年5月至2022年9月于青海省心脑血管病专科医院就诊的518例冠状动脉粥样硬化心脏病患者为观察组,选取同期在本院接受检查的非冠心病患者421例作为对照。收集患者的一般资料,采用logistic回归分析影响冠心病发病的危险因素,构建风险模型,采取ROC曲线分析该风险模型的预测价值。结果两组患者的性别、吸烟史差异无统计学意义(P>0.05),两组患者的年龄、BMI、糖尿病史、高血压史、吸烟史、家族史差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。对比两组患者血清TC、HDL、LDL、UA水平,观察组的血清TC、LDL、UA水平均高于对照组(P<0.05),观察组的血清HDL低于对照组(P<0.05)。多因素logistic回归结果显示,年龄、BMI、糖尿病史、高血压史、吸烟史、家族史、TC、LDL、UA均是冠心病发病的危险因素(P<0.05)。该风险模型的AUC为0.890,灵敏度和特异度分别为72.03%、91.14%。结论患者的年龄、BMI、糖尿病、高血压、吸烟、家族史、血脂异常、血尿酸异常均是冠心病发病的危险因素,根据以上危险因素构建的风险模式灵敏度和特异度水平都较高,有助于准确评估冠心病的发生风险。Objective To screen the risk factors and risk prediction model for coronary atherosclerotic heart disease in Xining area.Methods Five hundred and eighteen patients with coronary atherosclerotic heart disease who attended the Qinghai Specialized Hospital for Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Diseases and Cerebrovascular Diseases from May 2018 to September 2022 were selected as the observation group,and another 421 patients with non-coronary heart disease were set as control group.The general information of patients were collected.The risk factors affecting the development of coronary heart disease were screened using Logistic regression analysis,and a risk prediction model was constructed,then receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve was plotted to validate the predictive value of risk model.Results The gender ratio and smoking history yielded no statistical difference between two groups(P>0.05),but statistical difference was found in age,body mass index(BMI),diabetes history,hypertension history,smoking history and family history between two groups(P<0.05).Serum levels of total cholesterol(TC),low-density lipoprotein(LDL)and uric acid(UA)were all higher than the control group,and serum high-density lipoprotein(HDL)level was lower than the control group,with statistical difference(all P<0.05).Multivariate Logistic regression analysis denoted that age,BMI,diabetes history,hypertension history,smoking history,family history,TC,LDL,and UA were risk factors for the development of coronary heart disease(P<0.05).ROC curve analysis yielded an AUC of 0.890 for the risk model,with a sensitivity and specificity of 72.03%and 91.14%,respectively.Conclusion Patient′s age,BMI,and the presence of diabetes mellitus,hypertension and smoking,family history,abnormal blood lipid profiles,and abnormal blood uric acid are all risk factors for the development of coronary heart disease,and the risk model constructed on the basis of the above risk factors has a high degree of sensitivity and specificity,which is of great value in ac

关 键 词：冠状动脉粥样硬化心脏病 LOGISTIC回归 风险模型 

分 类 号：R181[医药卫生—流行病学]