基于模型群的重型货车交通安全风险因素分析  

An Analysis of Risk Factors of Traffic Safety for Heavy Trucks Based on Model Group

作　　者：柯星安 赵丹 王秋鸿 胡越宁 牛帅 KE Xingan;ZHAO Dan;WANG Qiuhong;HU Yuening;NIU Shuai(School of Traffic Management,People's Public Security University of China,Beijing 100038,China;Research Institute for Road Safety of Ministry of Public Security,Beijing 100062,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民公安大学交通管理学院,北京100038 [2]公安部道路交通安全研究中心,北京100062

出　　处：《交通信息与安全》2024年第4期72-80,共9页Journal of Transport Information and Safety

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFB4302703);公安部科学研究项目(2023JSM05)资助。

摘　　要：为了深入探究重型货车交通事故的风险因素及发生机理,基于中国某省2016—2021年重型货车交通事故数据,构建集成随机森林、Logistic回归、地理加权Logistic回归和贝叶斯网络模型的模型群,对风险因素的影响程度、空间异质性及其因果路径进行分析。结果显示:①重型货车行驶状态、碰撞形态等10个因素对风险存在显著影响,其中农村交通参与者、正面和侧面碰撞在不同模型中的影响程度有轻微差异,追尾碰撞的影响程度在地理加权Logistic回归模型中较贝叶斯网络模型更高。②重型货车右转、存在违法行为、涉及弱势道路使用者时极容易发生亡人事故,分别使风险增加了41.9%,39.3%和39.0%。③以碰撞形态作为中介变量,重型货车行驶状态、事故另一方交通方式和年龄这3类因素与亡人事故风险的因果路径分析表明:当重型货车与弱势道路使用者发生侧面碰撞时,亡人事故风险比发生刮擦且事故另一方为其他类型机动车提高64.4%,为重型货车交通事故典型危险场景;对方年龄为30岁及以下时,追尾碰撞概率较30~60岁以及60岁以上分别增加10.3%和26.1%。④具有空间异质性的风险因素中,正面碰撞的空间异质性强度最大,右转的空间异质性强度最小。结论表明:基于模型群的分析框架可得到重型货车交通安全风险显著影响因素,可验证因素在不同模型中影响程度的差异性及空间异质性。To explore the risk factors and occurrence mechanisms behind the traffic accidents of heavy trucks in-depth,a model group,which comprises random forests(RF),Logistic regression(LR),geographically weighted Logistic regression(GWLR),and Bayesian network(BN),is established based on the data of heavy truck accidents in a certain province from 2016 to 2021.This model group allows for examining the impact magnitude,spatial het-erogeneity,as well as the causal pathways leading to accidents of the risk factors.The results reveal that:①The driv-ing status of heavy trucks,collision patterns,and other eight factors have significant impacts on risks.The impact of rural traffic participants,as well as frontal and side collisions,varies slightly across different models,while the im-pact of rear-end collisions is higher in GWLR compared to that in BN.②When the heavy trucks are engaged in right turns,illegal behaviors or vulnerable road users,the risk of fatal accidents increases by 39.0%,41.9%and 39.3%,respectively.③With the factor collision patterns serving as a mediator,the causal pathway analysis for the risk of fatal accidents indicates:the factors side collisions and vulnerable road users contribute to the increase of the risk of fatal accident by 64.4%compared to the impact of the factor scrapes involving other vehicles,therefore can be marked as the typical hazardous scenario.Furthermore,when the other participant of heavy truck accidents in-volves drivers not older than 30 years,the probability of rear-end collisions increases by 10.3%and 26.1%com-pared to those involving drivers aged 30-60 and above 60 respectively.④Among the risk factors exhibiting spatial heterogeneity,the factor frontal collision exhibits the highest intensity,whereas the factor right turn shows the least.In conclusion,the analytical framework based on the model group can be used to identify the significant risk factors for traffic safety of heavy trucks,and to verify the differences of the impact across models and the notable spatial hetero

关 键 词：交通安全 重型货车 风险因素 贝叶斯网络 地理加权Logistic回归 因果路径 

分 类 号：U491.31[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]