城市雨洪脆弱性与韧性评估及适灾性优化策略——以广州市为例  

Assessment of Urban Rainstorm Vulnerability and Resilience and Optimization Strategies for Disaster Adaptability:A Case Study of Guangzhou

作　　者：杨晓 鲁爽 许险峰 黄建云 于锡军 YANG Xiao;LU Shuang;XU Xianfeng;HUANG Jianyun;YU Xijun

机构地区：[1]生态环境部华南环境科学研究所 [2]国家环境保护城市生态环境模拟与保护重点实验室 [3]上海交通大学设计学院 [4]广州市城市规划勘测设计研究院

出　　处：《规划师》2024年第10期41-49,共9页Planners

基　　金：国家环保专项(PM-zx126-202405-150);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(PM-zx703-202204-174)。

摘　　要：以广州市各行政区为研究对象,通过文献综述和理论分析,明确脆弱性与韧性的概念框架,构建涵盖环境、社会、经济、基础设施4个维度的城市雨洪脆弱性与韧性评价指标体系。同时,采用熵权—TOPSIS模型对广州市各区的雨洪脆弱性与韧性进行量化测度。结果表明:广州市各区在雨洪灾害背景下的脆弱性与韧性表现出明显的空间差异性,基于雨洪脆弱性与韧性指数,各行政区被划分为“高脆弱性—高韧性”“高脆弱性—低韧性”“低脆弱性—低韧性”“低脆弱性—高韧性”4种类别;在雨洪脆弱性与韧性的影响因素中,经济发展水平、人口聚集程度及基础设施建设的影响最为显著。根据研究结果,提出降低脆弱性和提升韧性两个方面的适灾性优化策略,包括加强雨洪灾害风险评估、优化城市空间布局与土地利用、完善灾情监测预警体系、提升经济发展水平、加强防灾基础设施体系建设、提升公众防灾意识与参与度。With literature review and theoretical analysis,a conceptual framework for vulnerability and resilience is clarified,and an assessment index system encompassing environmental,social,economic,and infrastructural dimensions is established.The entropy weight method and TOPSIS model are synergistically employed to quantitatively assess the vulnerability and resilience of each district in Guangzhou.The results indicate significant spatial disparities in vulnerability and resilience across the districts.Based on the vulnerability and resilience indices,each district is classified into one of the four types based on"high/low vulnerability-high/low resilience".In addition,among the influencing factors of rainstorm vulnerability and resilience,the impact of economic development level,population concentration,and infrastructure construction are the most significant.Based on the research findings,disaster adaptability optimization strategies tailored to reduce vulnerability and promote resilience are proposed,including strengthening risk assessment,optimizing urban spatial layout and land use,improving disaster monitoring and early warning systems,enhancing economic development level,strengthening disaster prevention infrastructure construction,and promoting public awareness and participation.

关 键 词：脆弱性 韧性 雨洪灾害 熵权—TOPSIS模型 优化策略 

分 类 号：TU984[建筑科学—城市规划与设计]