Reconciled estimation of Antarctic ice sheet mass balance and contribution to global sea level change from 1996 to 2021  

作　　者：Rongxing LI Guojun LI Gang HAI Huan XIE Yuan CHENG Wei CHEN Xiangbin CUI Minghu DING Chunchun GAO Tong HAO Changqing KE Chuanjin LI Jin LI Yan LIU Jiangjun RAN Jiawen REN Qiang SHEN Yunzhong SHEN Hongling SHI Songyun WANG Zemin WANG Jingang ZHAN Baojun ZHANG Min ZHONG Chunxia ZHOU 

机构地区：[1]Center for Spatial Information Science and Sustainable Development Applications,Tongji University,Shanghai 200092,China [2]College of Surveying and Geo-informatics,Tongji University,Shanghai 200092,China [3]Institute for the Conservation of Cultural Heritage,School of Cultural Heritage and Information Management,Shanghai University,Shanghai 200444,China [4]College of Resource Environment and Tourism,Hubei University of Arts and Science,Xiangyang 441053,China [5]Polar Research Institute of China,Shanghai 200136,China [6]State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China [7]College of Geodesy and Geomatics,Shandong University of Science and Technology,Qingdao 266590,China [8]School of Geography and Ocean Science,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210023,China [9]State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science,Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,China [10]Shanghai Astronomical Observatory,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Shanghai 200030,China [11]State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science,Faculty of Geographical Science,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China [12]Department of Earth and Space Sciences,Southern University of Science and Technology,Shenzhen 518055,China [13]State Key Laboratory of Geodesy and Earth’s Dynamics,Innovation Academy for Precision Measurement Science and Technology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Wuhan 430077,China [14]Center for Space Research,University of Texas at Austin,Austin TX 78759,USA [15]Chinese Antarctic Center of Surveying and Mapping,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430079,China [16]School of Geospatial Engineering and Science,Sun Yat-sen University,Zhuhai 519082,China

出　　处：《Science China Earth Sciences》2024年第11期3562-3578,共17页中国科学（地球科学英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42394131);the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities。

摘　　要：The Antarctic Ice Sheet(AIS)has been losing ice mass and contributing to global sea level rise(GSLR).Given its mass that is enough to cause~58 m of GSLR,accurate estimation of mass balance trend is critical for AIS mass loss monitoring and sea level rise forecasting.Here,we present an improved approach to reconciled solutions of mass balance in AIS and its regions from multiple contributing solutions using the input-out,altimetric,and gravimetric methods.In comparison to previous methods,such as IMBIE 2018,this approach utilizes an adaptive data aggregation window to handle the heterogeneity of the contributing solutions,including the number of solutions,temporal distributions,uncertainties,and estimation techniques.We improved the regression-based method by using a two-step procedure that establishes ensembled solutions within each method(input-output,altimetry,or gravimetry)and then estimates the method-independent reconciled solutions.For the first time,16contributing solutions from 8 Chinese institutions are used to estimate the reconciled mass balance of AIS and its regions from1996 to 2021.Our results show that AIS has lost a total ice mass of~3213±253 Gt during the period,an equivalent of~8.9±0.7 mm of GSLR.There is a sustained mass loss acceleration since 2006,from 88.1±3.6 Gt yr^(-1)during 1996–2005 to 130.7±8.4 Gt yr^(-1)during 2006–2013 and further to 157.0±9.0 Gt yr^(-1)during 2014–2021.The mass loss signal in the West Antarctica and Antarctic Peninsula is dominant and clearly presented in the reconciled estimation and contributing solutions,regardless of estimation methods used and fluctuation of surface mass balance.Uncertainty and challenges remain in mass balance estimation in East Antarctica.This reconciled estimation approach can be extended and applied for improved mass balance estimation in the Greenland Ice Sheet and mountain glacier regions.

关 键 词：Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice mass loss acceleration Sea level rise Reconciled estimation 

分 类 号：P941.61[天文地球—自然地理学] P343.6P731.23