地缘政治风险影响下欧洲国家与中国进出口贸易研究  

Study on the Import and Export Trade Between European Countries and China under the Influence of Geopolitical Risks

作　　者：唐博文 Tang Bowen(College of Economics&Management,China Jiliang University,Hangzhou,Zhejiang 310018)

机构地区：[1]中国计量大学经济与管理学院,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《中国商论》2024年第20期63-67,共5页China Journal of Commerce

摘　　要：当前,全球地缘政治风险因素显著增多,对国际贸易环境产生了重大影响。基于欧洲国家地缘政治风险,本文选用拓展型贸易引力模型分析地缘政治风险对选定的16个欧洲国家与中国2000—2022年双边贸易的影响,研究发现:地缘政治风险指数越高,对欧洲国家同中国的贸易阻碍程度越高;国内政治稳定指数也会对贸易产生影响,国内稳定程度越高越能促进同中国的进出口贸易;若某欧洲国家为“北大西洋公约组织”成员国,其地缘政治风险会因此发生变化,加深对贸易的影响。Currently,global geopolitical risk factors have significantly increased,impacting the international trade environment.Based on the geopolitical risks of European countries,this paper employs an expanded trade gravity model to analyze the effects of geopolitical risks on bilateral trade between 16 selected European countries and China from 2000 to 2022.The study finds that a higher geopolitical risk index correlates with greater trade impediments for European countries with China.Additionally,the domestic political stability index also influences trade;greater domestic stability tends to facilitate imports and exports with China.Furthermore,if a European country is a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO),its geopolitical risk may change,further intensifying its impact on trade.

关 键 词：中国 欧洲 地缘政治 政治风险 国际贸易 国际关系 

分 类 号：F742[经济管理—国际贸易]