水利水电工程临时道路的地震致灾风险评估研究——以四川地区为例  

Study on Seismic Risk of Temporary Roads for Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering——Taking Sichuan as an Example

作　　者：李垠 刘全[3] 张亦梅 张萍 LI Yin;LIU Quan;ZHANG Yi-mei;ZHANG Ping(Hubei Earthquake Agency,Wuhan 430071,Hubei Province,China;Hubei Key Laboratory of Earthquake Warning,Wuhan 430071,Hubei Province,China;State Key Laboratory of Water Resources Engineering and Management,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,Hubei Province,China)

机构地区：[1]湖北省地震局,湖北武汉430071 [2]地震预警湖北省重点实验室,湖北武汉430071 [3]武汉大学水资源工程与调度全国重点实验室,湖北武汉430071

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2024年第11期140-147,155,共9页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：中国地震局地震应急青年重点任务(CEA_EDEM-2022)。

摘　　要：灾害风险研究对工程项目顺利实施起着重要性的作用。以四川地区水利水电工程临时道路为研究对象,以地震为致灾因子,从构造背景和地震危险性两大方面进行分析,采用模糊集合理论和判断矩阵法,建立了临时道路遭受地震影响的风险评估的数学模型,分析了四川地区18912个格网单元遭遇地震后道路破坏情况的可能性。结果表明:四川地区水利水电工程临时道路遭受地震中等破坏的可能性较大,其中阿坝州的九寨沟县和汶川县及绵阳市的青川县等地区破坏情况可能最为严重。Research on hazard risk plays an important role in the smooth implementation progress of engineering projects.Taking temporary roads for the water conservancy and hydropower engineering in Sichuan Province as research objects,and earthquake as the hazard factor,this paper analyzed the temporary roads from two aspects:geological environment and earthquake hazard.We founded a mathematical model for risk assessment of temporary roads affected by earthquakes,by using fuzzy set theory and judgment matrix methods.We analysed the possibility of roads subjected to earthquake damage in 18912 grid cells in Sichuan Province.The conclusion shows that temporary roads in Sichuan are more likely to suffer moderate damage from earthquakes,among which Jiuzhaigou and Wenchuan County in Aba Prefecture,and Qingchuan County in Mianyang City are likely to suffer the most serious damage.

关 键 词：临时道路 地震风险 模糊集合 判断矩阵 构造背景 格网单元 

分 类 号：TV93[水利工程—水利水电工程] P315[天文地球—地震学]