中国50岁人群的健康工作预期寿命  

Healthy working life expectancy of adults aged 50 years old in China

作　　者：朱璟捷 李穗芳 傅华[1] 安娜[3] 高俊岭[1] ZHU Jingjie;LI Suifang;FU Hua;AN Na;GAO Junling(School of Public Health,Fudan University,Shanghai 200032,China;Community Health Service Center of Chedun Town,Songjiang District,Shanghai 201611,China;Songjiang District Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Shanghai 201611,China)

机构地区：[1]复旦大学公共卫生学院,上海200032 [2]松江区车墩镇社区卫生服务中心,上海201611 [3]上海市松江区疾病预防控制中心,上海201611

出　　处：《环境与职业医学》2024年第9期988-994,共7页Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(82173634)。

摘　　要：[背景]随着中国老龄化程度的加剧,劳动力缺口较大。延迟退休年龄成为缓解劳动力短缺的潜在方法。[目的]估计中国50岁人群的健康工作预期寿命(HWLE)。[方法]本研究利用中国健康与养老追踪调查(CHARLS)数据集中2011—2018年的4次调查数据,选择年龄在50岁及以上的人群数据,采用连续时间的多状态模型计算人群的HWLE,并按性别、受教育程度、婚姻状况、职业类型、户籍所在地和地区进行分层分析。[结果]共纳入50991人次50岁及以上的人群数据进行研究。中国50岁人群的平均总预期寿命为29.72年(95%CI:29.28~30.12年),其中HWLE为14.05年(95%CI:13.76~14.33年),在健康但不工作、不健康但工作和不健康且不工作的状态下生存的年限及其95%CI分别为8.82(8.53~9.15)年、2.54(2.41~2.68)年和4.30(4.08~4.54)年。基线状态为健康且工作、健康但不工作、不健康但工作和不健康且不工作的研究对象的HWLE及其95%CI分别为14.97(14.69~15.23)年、10.86(10.52~11.22)年、11.73(11.31~12.09)年和9.51(9.09~9.97)年。另外,女性的总预期寿命高于男性[分别为31.84(31.10~32.54)年与27.98(27.35~28.50)年],但HWLE低于男性[分别为12.47(12.12~12.82)年与15.62(15.23~15.98)年]。农村居民和城镇居民的总预期寿命未见差异[29.43(28.88~29.97)年与30.31(29.47~31.02)年],但农村居民的HWLE高于城镇居民[分别为15.74(15.39~16.10)年与11.38(10.97~11.73)年]。东部地区[14.66(14.22~15.06)年]和中部地区[14.15(13.86~14.43)年]居民的HWLE高于西部地区[13.61(13.27~13.98)年]和东北地区[13.06(12.51~13.63)年]的居民。[结论]我国居民的HWLE支持延迟退休年龄的政策。城乡之间和不同地区的HWLE水平存在一定差异。为老年人提供更灵活的就业机会可以缓解人口老龄化带来的劳动力短缺问题。[Background]With the increasing aging population in China,there is a significant shortage of labor force.Delaying retirement age has become a potential method to alleviate this labor shortage.[Objective]To estimate the healthy working life expectancy(HWLE)of individuals aged 50 years old in China.[Methods]This study was based on data from four waves(2011—2018)of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study(CHARLS).HWLE was estimated for the overall sample of individuals aged 50 years old and above and stratified by sex,educational attainment,marital status,occupation,Hukou type,and region by using continuous-time multistate modelling.[Results]A total of 50991 person-times aged≥50 years and older were included in the study.The average total life expectancy of the Chinese population aged 50 years old was 29.72 years(95%CI:29.28,30.12 years),with a HWLE of 14.05 years(95%CI:13.76,14.33 years).The remaining years lived in the states of healthy but not working,not healthy but working,and not healthy and not working were 8.82 years(95%CI:8.53,9.15 years),2.54 years(95%CI:2.41,2.68 years),and 4.30 years(95%CI:4.08,4.54 years),respectively.The HWLE(95%CI)of individuals in the baseline states of healthy and working,healthy but not working,not healthy but working,and not healthy and not working were 14.97(14.69,15.23),10.86(10.52,11.22),11.73(11.31,12.09),and 9.51(9.09,9.97)years,respectively.Additionally,women had a higher total life expectancy(95%CI)than men[31.84(31.10,32.54)years vs 27.98(27.35,28.50)years],but a lower HWLE than men[12.47(12.12,12.82)years vs 15.62(15.23,15.98)years].There was no difference in total life expectancy between rural residents and urban residents[29.43(28.88,29.97)years vs 30.31(29.47,31.02)years],but rural residents had a higher HWLE than urban residents[15.74(15.39,16.10)years vs 11.38(10.97,11.73)years].Residents in East China[14.66(14.22,15.06)years]and Central China[14.15(13.86,14.43)years]had a higher HWLE than residents in West China[13.61(13.27,13.98)years]and Northeast Ch

关 键 词：健康工作预期寿命 人口老龄化 多状态模型 劳动力 

分 类 号：R132[医药卫生—劳动卫生]