PPP模式下居住建筑节能改造项目投资风险评价  

Investment Risk Assessment of PPP Mode Residential Building Energy Efficiency Renovation Project

作　　者：刘光凤 罗巧巧 周直 LIU Guangfeng;LUO Qiaoqiao;ZHOU Zhi(School of Economics and Management,Chongqing Jiaotong University,Chongqing 400074,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆交通大学经济与管理学院,重庆400074

出　　处：《粉煤灰综合利用》2024年第5期135-141,共7页Fly Ash Comprehensive Utilization

基　　金：重庆市教育科学规划青年课题“重庆高校工程伦理教育的关键机制及对策研究”(K22YY207694)。

摘　　要：针对PPP模式下居住建筑节能改造项目投资风险评价问题,建立环境风险、合规性风险、管理风险、融资风险、建设风险和运营风险六个方面的投资风险评价指标体系,采用层次分析法确定风险因素权重,通过专家问卷调查获取风险等级评价矩阵,运用集对势分析风险态势,运用偏联系数理论预测风险发生趋势,构建基于五元联系数的PPP模式下居住建筑节能改造项目投资风险评价模型,并结合哈尔滨市PPP模式居住建筑节能改造项目进行实证分析。结果表明:该评价模型能实现PPP模式下居住建筑节能改造项目投资风险静态评价与动态分析的有效结合,为社会资本方投资风险管理提供参考。In view of the investment risk evaluation of PPP mode residential building energy-saving renovation project,an investment risk evaluation index system in six aspects of environmentrisk,compliancerisk,managementrisk,financingrisk,constructionrisk and operation riskwas established,the weight of Risk factor was determined by the analytic hierarchy process,the risk rating evaluation matrix was obtained by expert questionnaire,the static risk situation was analyzed by the set pair potential,and the risk occurrence trend was analyzed by the partial coefficient theory,This paper constructs an investment risk evaluation model of PPP mode residential building energy-saving renovation project based on the five yuan connection number,and conducts an empirical analysis with a PPP residential building energy-saving renovation project in Harbin.The results show that this evaluation model can effectively combine static evaluation and dynamic analysis of investment risks in PPP mode residential building energy-saving renovation projects,providing reference for social capital to manage investment risks.

关 键 词：PPP 建筑节能改造 集对分析 风险评价 

分 类 号：TU984.12[建筑科学—城市规划与设计]