货币政策降低系统性金融风险的有效性  

The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in Reducing Systemic Financial Risks

作　　者：陈娜[1] 吴美玲 CHEN Na(Concord University College Fujian Normal University,Fuzhou 350117,China)

机构地区：[1]福建师范大学协和学院,福州350117

出　　处：《长春工程学院学报（社会科学版）》2024年第3期28-35,50,共9页Journal of Changchun Institute of Technology(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“共同富裕进程中资本规范健康发展研究”(项目编号:22BKS178)。

摘　　要：当前,我国正面临经济转型和金融体系全面改革的双重挑战。为了确保经济的稳定增长,研究货币政策对系统性金融风险的影响具有实际的指导意义。从四个维度14个指标构建我国系统性金融风险指数,研究发现,从2011年到2023年,我国的系统性金融风险整体上呈现上升趋势。在数量型和价格型货币政策理论基础上,建立包含随机波动率的时变参数向量自回归模型,通过等间隔脉冲响应函数深入分析不同货币政策对系统性金融风险的时变冲击效应,表明需要搭配使用两种货币政策工具来降低金融危机的发生。At present,China is facing the double challenges of economic transformation and overall reform of financial system.In order to ensure the stable growth of the economy,the study on the impact of monetary policy on systemic financial risk has practical guiding significance for the stable development of Chinese economy.This paper constructs a four-dimensional 14-index of systemic financial risk,and finds that from 2011 to 2023,systemic financial risk in China as a whole shows an upward trend.Based on quantitative and price-based monetary policy theory,a time-varying parameter Vector autoregression including stochastic volatility is established,the time-varying impact effect of different monetary policies on systemic financial risks through the equal-interval impulse response function has been analyzed,which indicates that it is necessary to use two monetary policy tools to reduce the occurrence of financial crisis.

关 键 词：货币政策 系统性金融风险 SV-TVP-VAR模型 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学]