贸易政策不确定性、外资持股与企业对外直接投资  

Trade Policy Uncertainty,Foreign Equity Holding and Corporate Outward Foreign Direct Investment

作　　者：陈凯 杨亚平[2] 吉磊 CHEN Kai;YANG Yaping;JI Lei(School of Economics,Yunnan University of Finance and Economics,Kunming 650221,China;School of Economics,Jinan University,Guangzhou 510632,China)

机构地区：[1]云南财经大学经济学院,昆明650221 [2]暨南大学经济学院,广州510632

出　　处：《云南财经大学学报》2024年第11期14-31,共18页Journal of Yunnan University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“中国对外直接投资企业的创新绩效研究:基于ESCP分析框架”(72273051)。

摘　　要：贸易政策不确定性导致企业国际化战略发生改变,使用中国上市公司数据研究贸易政策不确定性对企业对外直接投资的影响,并讨论外资持股在贸易政策不确定性与企业对外直接投资之间的作用。研究发现,贸易政策不确定性促进了企业对外直接投资。当对外直接投资目的地为“一带一路”倡议沿线国家、投资方式为海外并购、投资行业为制造业时,贸易政策不确定性对海外投资的促进作用更为明显。此外,外资持股在贸易政策不确定性与对外直接投资之间起到正向调节作用,即在面对贸易政策不确定性时,拥有外资股份的企业更倾向于海外投资。生产率提升、经营绩效改善和企业风险降低是外资持股加强贸易政策不确定性对对外直接投资促进效应的三个机制。并且外资持股企业更偏向于对发展中国家进行海外投资,而非将产能迁入发达国家。以上结论为企业应对贸易政策不确定性、发挥外资作用、提升OFDI质量、推动高水平对外开放提供了有益参考。The uncertainty of trade policies has led to the changes in the internationalization strategy of enterprises.This article uses data from Chinese listed companies to study the impact of trade policy uncertainty on corporate outward foreign direct investment(OFDI).The role of foreign equity holding in the relationship between trade policy uncertainty and corporate OFDI is discussed.Research finds that trade policy uncertainty has promoted OFDI of enterprises.When the destinations of OFDI are the countries along the“Belt and Road”,the investment mode is overseas mergers and acquisitions,and the investment industry is manufacturing,the role of trade policy uncertainty in promoting overseas investment is more obvious.In addition,foreign equity holding plays a positive moderating role between trade policy uncertainty and OFDI.When facing trade policy uncertainty,companies with foreign equities are more inclined to invest overseas.Productivity improvement,business performance improvement,and enterprise risk reduction are the three mechanisms through which foreign equity holding enhances the promotion effect of trade policy uncertainty on OFDI.Moreover,foreign equity holding companies tend to invest overseas in developing countries rather than moving production capacity into developed countries.The above conclusions provide useful references for enterprises to cope with trade policy uncertainty,make full use of foreign investment,improve the quality of OFDI,and promote high-level opening up to the outside world.

关 键 词：贸易政策不确定性 对外直接投资 外资持股 投资方式 

分 类 号：F741[经济管理—国际贸易]