中国的银行体系稳定与宏观政策协同调控研究——基于服务实体经济与防范金融风险的双重视角  

Research on the Stability of China's Banking System and the Coordinated Regulation of Macro-policy:Based on the Dual Perspectives of Serving the Real Economy and Preventing Financial Risks

作　　者：李志辉[1] 李永杰 LI Zhihui;LI Yongjie(School of Economics,Nankai University,Tianjin 300071,China)

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院,天津300071

出　　处：《云南财经大学学报》2024年第11期48-66,共19页Journal of Yunnan University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“实现高质量发展的国有商业银行改革研究”(21ZDA048)。

摘　　要：基于支撑服务能力和风险抵御能力两个层面界定银行体系稳定内涵,运用混频动态因子模型与马尔科夫区制转移模型分别实现中国银行体系稳定的指数拟合与演变特征分析,进一步构建时变参数因子增广向量自回归模型考察宏观政策对银行体系稳定的调控效果。研究发现,新常态以来银行体系支撑服务能力经历了V型探底后企稳回升的演变路径,风险抵御能力则由高位大幅震荡转变为低位小幅波动;银行体系支撑服务能力和风险抵御能力存在典型的周期错位现象,两者的联动关系既有恶性螺旋区间也有良性循环阶段;相较于宏观审慎政策,财政政策和数量型货币政策对银行体系稳定的调控效应尤为凸显,价格型货币政策的调控效率正持续提升,且多数政策工具会面临顾此失彼的两难调控困境;反事实分析表明,财政、货币与宏观审慎政策协同调控有利于节省政策空间并降低政策缺位引致的机会成本,是引导银行体系实现稳增长和防风险动态平衡的占优策略。研究从统筹服务实体经济与防范金融风险的双重视角丰富了中国式银行体系稳定的理论内涵,为健全中国特色的金融监管体制和宏观调控架构提供了政策启示。The article defines the connotation of banking system stability based on service supporting capability and risk resistance capability.Mixed frequency dynamic factor model and Markov regime switching model are used respectively to realize the exponential fitting and evolution characteristics analysis of the stability of China's banking system.Time-varying parameter factor augmented vector autoregression model(FAVAR)is further constructed to investigate the regulating effect of macro policy on the stability of the banking system.Research finds that since the new normal,the service supporting capability of the banking system has experienced the evolution path of stabilization and recovery after the V-shaped bottom,and risk resistance capability has changed from high large shocks to low small fluctuations.There is a typical periodic dislocation in the service supporting capability and risk resistance capability of the banking system,and the linkage relationship between the two has both vicious spiral interval and virtuous circle stage.Compared with the macro-prudential policy,the regulatory effect of fiscal policy and quantitative monetary policy on the stability of the banking system is particularly prominent,and the regulation efficiency of the price-based monetary policy is improving.What's more,most policy tools will face the dilemma of regulation.The counterfactual analysis shows that the coordinated regulation of fiscal,monetary and macro-prudential policies is conducive to saving policy space and reducing the opportunity cost caused by the absence of policies.It is a dominant strategy to guide the banking system to achieve the dynamic balance between steady growth and risk prevention.The study enriches the theoretical connotation of the stability of the Chinese banking system from the dual perspective of comprehensively serving the real economy and preventing financial risks,and provides policy enlightenment for improving the financial supervision system and macro-control structure with Chinese characteristics

关 键 词：银行体系稳定 支撑服务能力 风险抵御能力 宏观政策调控 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学]