基于四阶段预测法的道路工程交通量预测与应用  

Road Engineering Traffic Volume Prediction and Application Based on Four Stage Prediction Method

作　　者：刘建平 LIU Jianping(CCCC Yuanzhou Traffic Technology Group Co.,Ltd.,Fuzhou 350014)

机构地区：[1]中交远洲交通科技集团有限公司,福建福州350014

出　　处：《福建建筑》2024年第9期95-98,125,共5页Fujian Architecture & Construction

摘　　要：为了在项目可行性研究阶段提供合理有效的交通预测数据,研究采用四阶段预测法,对拟建工程进行交通量预测。首先在分析四阶段预测法的总体思路、拟建项目基本情况和现场交通现状基础上,对交通量进行预测;其次,分别对交通发展、居民出行、机动车、非机动车和行人出行进行预测,最后研究交通分配的结果。通过研究可知,随着年份的增长,路段交通量也在得到逐年的递增,并根据交通量对道路采用单向2车道进行设计。In order to provide reasonable and effective traffic forecasting data during the feasibility study stage of the project,a four stage forecasting method was adopted to predict the traffic volume of the proposed project.Firstly,based on the analysis of the overall idea of the four stage prediction method,the basic situation of the proposed project,and the current traffic situation on site,the traffic volume is predicted;Secondly,predict the development of transportation,residents travel,motor vehicles,non motor vehicles,and pedestrian travel separately,and finally study the results of traffic allocation.Through research,it is known that with the increase of years,the traffic volume of road sections is also increasing year by year,and the road is designed with one-way two lane according to the traffic volume.

关 键 词：四阶段预测法 道路工程 交通量预测 交通分布 

分 类 号：U41[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]