基于MaxEnt和ArcGIS预测蛇鳄龟在中国的潜在适生区域及其对未来气候变化的响应  

Potential suitable habitats of Chelydra serpentina Linnaeus in China under future climate projection,based on MaxEnt and ArcGIS

作　　者：庄晓纯 王成 洪维 高养春 魏玉峰 ZHUANG Xiaochun;WANG Cheng;HONG Wei;GAO Yangchun;WEI Yufeng(Guangdong Longyandong Forest Farm,Guangzhou,Guangdong 510520,China;Institute of Zoology,Guangdong Academy of Sciences,Guangzhou,Guangdong 510260,China;Guangdong Key Laboratory of Animal Conservation and Resource Utilization/Guangdong Public Laboratory of Wild Animal Conservation and Utilization,Guangzhou,Guangdong 510260,China)

机构地区：[1]广东省龙眼洞林场,广东广州510520 [2]广东省科学院动物研究所,广东广州510260 [3]广东省动物保护与资源利用重点实验室/广东省野生动物保护与利用公共实验室,广东广州510260

出　　处：《生物安全学报（中英文）》2024年第4期393-401,422,共10页Journal of biosafety

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(32371753);广东省科学院科技发展专项(2022GDASZH-2022010106);广州市科技计划项目(2023A04J0844);广东林业外来入侵动物物种普查项目;广东省龙眼洞林场两栖爬行动物资源本底调查研究项目。

摘　　要：【目的】蛇鳄龟原产于加拿大和美国,现已在亚洲、欧洲和美洲的多个国家广泛分布,对我国生物多样性和人类健康造成严重威胁,亟需预测蛇鳄龟在我国的潜在分布范围,为其入侵风险评估和防治策略制定提供重要科学依据。【方法】基于蛇鳄龟在中国的76个分布点位和19个生物气候变量,利用MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS预测当前和未来气候条件下蛇鳄龟在中国的潜在分布范围和变化趋势,分析影响其分布的重要生物气候变量。【结果】最干月份降水量、最冷月份最低温和最湿季度平均温度是MaxEnt模型中贡献率排名前3的生物气候变量,可能是影响蛇鳄龟分布的重要自然因素;当前气候条件下,蛇鳄龟高适生区域主要集中于华南、华中和华东的大部分地区,华北和西南地区存在少部分高适生区域,东北和西北的大部分地区无高适生区域分布;未来气候条件下,蛇鳄龟高适生区域面积增加,扩张区域主要集中于湖北北部、河南、陕西南部及江西、湖南、四川等局部地区,收缩区域主要集中于河北南部、山东西北部、江苏北部及广西、四川等局部地区,导致高适生区域质心分布向西南和西北方向移动。【结论】蛇鳄龟在我国华南、华中和华东地区入侵风险较高,未来入侵风险将持续增加。今后,应加强对高入侵风险区域的监管力度,积极开展外来入侵物种的监测与调查,防止其进一步入侵和扩散。【Aim】The common snapping turtle(Chelydra serpentina Linnaeus)is native to the Canada and the United States but has been widely distributed in many countries in Asia,Europe and the Americas,posing serious threats to both local biodiversity and public health in China.Therefore,it is crucial to predict the potential distribution of C.serpentina in China in order to provide a significant scientific basis for assessing invasion risks and formulating effective control strategies.【Method】In this study,a total of 76 distribution points of C.serpentina and 19 bioclimatic variables were used to predict the potential distribution in China under both current and future climate conditions using the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS.The most important bioclimatic variables influencing its distribution were analyzed.【Result】The top three bioclimatic variables affecting the distribution of C.serpentina are the precipitation of driest month,the min temperature of coldest month,and mean temperature of wettest quarter.These variables might be the most important natural factor affecting the occurrence and distribution of C.serpentina.Under current climatic conditions,the high suitability areas for C.serpentina are mainly concentrated in South China,Central China,and East China,with a few in North China and Southwest China.There is almost no invasion risk in most of the northeast and northwest provinces of China.However,the high suitability areas are projected to increase in the future,particularly in the north Hubei,Henan,south Shaanxi,as well as localized areas in Jiangxi,Hunan,and Sichuan provinces.On the other hand,the high suitability areas are expected to decrease in the south Hebei,northwest Shandong,north Jiangsu,and localized areas in Guangxi and Sichuan provinces.With climate warming,the centroid distribution of high suitability areas for C.serpentina is shifting towards the southwest and northwest.【Conclusion】The C.serpentina has a high invasion risk in southern,central,and eastern China,and this risk is expected to

关 键 词：外来入侵物种 蛇鳄龟 气候变化 适生区域 

分 类 号：Q958[生物学—动物学]