淮北平原冬小麦农业干旱时空变化规律  

Spatiotemporal variation in droughts during winter wheat growing season in the Huaibei Plain

作　　者：陆玟 朱永华[1,2,3] 吕海深 彭宇杰[1] 朱婉婷 王启猛 王振龙 LU Wen;ZHU Yonghua;LYU Haishen;PENG Yujie;ZHU Wanting;WANG Qimeng;WANG Zhenglong(College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;College of Geography and Remote Sensing,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100,China;The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention,Nanjing 210098,China;The Huaihe River Commission of the Ministry of Water Resource,P.R.C,Bengbu 233001,China;Anhui&Huaihe River Institute of Hydraulic Research,Anhui Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Resources,Hefei 230088,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,南京210098 [2]河海大学地理与遥感学院,南京211100 [3]水灾害防御全国重点实验室,南京210098 [4]水利部淮河水利委员会,安徽蚌埠233001 [5]安徽省(水利部淮委)水利科学研究院水利水资源安徽省重点实验室,合肥230088

出　　处：《灌溉排水学报》2024年第11期74-81,106,共9页Journal of Irrigation and Drainage

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42071033,41830752)。

摘　　要：【目的】探究淮北平原冬小麦农业干旱的时空变化规律。【方法】以作物水分亏缺指数(CWDI)作为干旱指标,分析淮北平原1957—2018年各地区冬小麦各生育阶段CWDI年际变化趋势、空间分布、波动范围、干旱站次比和空间频率分布,探讨淮北平原冬小麦农业干旱的时空变化规律。【结果】淮北平原冬小麦整个生育期内旬需水量和旬供水量均呈先降低后上升的变化趋势,旬有效降水量变幅不大,均在10mm以内,而潜水蒸发强度在3月中旬—5月下旬显著增加,增幅达260%。阜阳、蚌埠和蒙城地区的冬小麦生长期水分供需相对平衡,而砀山、亳州和宿州地区水分供需不平衡;宿州CWDI波动性最大,蚌埠CWDI波动性最小。1957—2018年,冬小麦生育期干旱站次比呈显著上升趋势;2010年干旱范围最广、干旱程度最大。各生育阶段农业干旱程度的空间分布不均,呈由南到北递增的趋势,黄潮土区干旱等级普遍高于砂姜黑土区;轻旱发生频率高值中心由淮北平原南部向北部迁移,中旱高值区主要集中在亳州和宿州;重旱呈北高南低的特征;特旱在全生育期内较为罕见,发生频率不足5%。【结论】淮北平原1957—2018年冬小麦干旱程度呈上升趋势,水分供需不平衡,砀山和宿州地区需增加灌溉量。【Objective】The Huaibei Plain in central China is a major agricultural production area where winter wheat often experiences drought during its growing season.This study analyses the spatiotemporal variation in drought during the winter wheat growing season in this region.【Method】The analysis was based on meteorological data measured from 1957 to 2018.We used the crop water deficit index(CWDI)during the wheat growing season as a proxy for drought,analysing its inter-annual variation,spatial distribution,fluctuation patterns,occurrence rates,and spatial frequency distribution across different areas in the region.【Result】①Throughout the wheat growing season,ten-day water demand and water supply both showed an initial decrease followed by an increase.Effective precipitation per ten-day period was less than 10 mm,while soil-surface evaporation increased by 260%from mid-March to late May.②During the growing season,water supply and demand were balanced in Fuyang,Bengbu,and Mengcheng,but not in Dangshan,Bozhou,and Suzhou.Suzhou had the greatest fluctuation in CWDI,while Bengbu had the least.③From 1957 to 2018,drought occurrence during the winter wheat growing season increased by approximately 1.5 times,with 2010 experiencing the most widespread and severe droughts.④Spatially,drought severity increased from the South to the North,with Dangshan,characterized by fluvo-aquic soil,experiencing more severe droughts than areas with Shajiang Mollisol.Over time,the center with high-frequency of moderate drought shifted northward toward Bozhou and Suzhou.Extreme droughts were rare in this region.【Conclusion】Drought severity during the winter wheat growing season in the Huaibei Plain has increased from 1957 to 2018.Water supply and demand are imbalanced in regions such as Dangshan and Suzhou,where supplemental irrigation is needed.

关 键 词：农业干旱 冬小麦 作物水分亏缺指数 时空变化 

分 类 号：S423[农业科学—植物保护]