上海市中心城区绿地生态网络演化多情景模拟及景观连接度评价  

Multi-scenario Simulation and Landscape Connectivity Evaluation of the Evolution of Green Space Ecological Network in Central Urban Area of Shanghai

作　　者：刘杰 胡国华 张浪 LIU Jie;HU Guohua;ZHANG Lang(Shanghai Academy of Landscape Architecture Science and Planning;School of Geographic Sciences,East China Normal University;National Innovation Alliance of National Forestry and Grassland Administration on Afforestation;Shanghai Engineering Research Center of Challenging Urban Sites;Key Laboratory of National Forestry and Grassland Administration for Ecological Landscaping of Challenging Urban Sites)

机构地区：[1]上海市园林科学规划研究院 [2]华东师范大学地理科学学院 [3]城市困难立地园林绿化国家创新联盟 [4]上海城市困难立地绿化工程技术研究中心 [5]上海市园林科学规划研究院城市困难立地生态园林国家林草局重点实验室

出　　处：《风景园林》2024年第11期70-78,共9页Landscape Architecture

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“城市生态廊道多尺度结构与功能连接度的关联机制”(编号32171569);国家自然科学基金青年项目“SSPs框架下的土地利用变化模拟模型及其在长江经济带生态评估中的应用”(编号41901322);国家重点研发计划课题“典型城市廊道多功能耦合网络构建与生态修复技术”(编号2022YFC3802604);上海市科委“科技创新行动计划”社会发展科技攻关项目“超大城市上海公园城市构建关键技术研究与示范”(编号23DZ1204400)。

摘　　要：【目的】通过对上海市中心城区未来用地进行多情景模拟,测度不同情景下绿地生态网络景观连接度变化,为未来城市生态空间优化提供依据。【方法】基于斑块生成土地利用变化模拟(patchgenerating land use simulation,PLUS)模型,对上海市中心城区绿地生态网络演化进行多情景模拟,并通过形态学空间格局分析(morphological spatial pattern analysis,MSPA)与景观连接度分析,探究未来不同情景下城市绿地生态网络结构性连接和功能性连接的差异。【结果】1)未来上海市中心城区不同情景下绿地面积均有不同幅度的减少,但在生态保护发展情景下,绿地面积的衰减速度得到有效控制;2)就结构性连接而言,生态保护发展情景下的绿地生态网络具有较好的廊道连通性,能够有效促进物种扩散和能量流动;3)就功能性连接而言,绿地生态网络重要斑块在多情景模拟中的空间分布基本一致,且斑块重要性指数(delta probability of connectivity,dPC)分布可为未来重要潜在源地斑块的统筹规划提供指导。【结论】生态保护发展情景可较好维持生态网络的连接度以及景观结构的稳定性,在未来的城市建设中,可通过政策调控及规划促进城市生态空间、城市绿地生态网络健康发展。[Objective]With urban development and land use expansion,the structure and layout of various land use types are in dynamic change,and the fragmentation of ecological space becomes an important problem faced in the process of urbanization.The development of complex urban systems is highly influenced by social factors and human interference,and simple extrapolation and prediction of empirical knowledge can hardly predict future changes in urban land use.In view of this,it is recommended to use future land use simulation technology to simulate the changes of urban green space ecological network driven by multiple factors,so as to produce more reliable simulation results,thus improving the foresight and scientificity of urban planning work.Taking the central urban area of Shanghai as an example,this research conducts multi-scenario simulations of future land use,and measures the connectivity of green space ecological network under different scenarios,so as to provide a basis for optimizing urban ecological space in the future.[Methods]The current land use data spanning the period from 2000 to 2020 are used as the base data,and raster data obtained are derived from 30 m×30 m rasters.Driving factors are screened,including population density,GDP distribution,distance to railroads,highways,and main roads,average annual climate/precipitation,etc.,and the suitability probability of each type of land use is calculated.Taking 2000 as the base year,the land use scenario for the target year 2020 is simulated based on the PLUS model,and the spatial consistency between this simulation scenario and the actual status of land use in 2020 is compared in combination with the kappa coefficient and the overall accuracy.On the basis of satisfying the simulation accuracy,the land use changes in 2040 under different constraints are simulated,and the urban green space ecological network under multiple scenarios of future urban development is extracted.In addition,morphological spatial pattern analysis(MSPA)and functional connectivity meas

关 键 词：风景园林 绿地生态网络 土地利用模拟 PLUS模型 景观连接度 上海市 

分 类 号：TU986[建筑科学—城市规划与设计]