太空弹性:美国太空战略的“进化”及其影响  

Space Resilience:The“Evolution”of U.S.Space Strategy and Its Implications

作　　者：徐能武[1] 高杨予兮 Xu Nengwu;Gao Yangyuxi

机构地区：[1]国防科技大学军政基础教育学院,长沙410073 [2]国防大学国家安全学院,北京100091

出　　处：《国际论坛》2024年第6期24-40,155,156,共19页International Forum

基　　金：2024年国家社会科学基金重点课题“外层空间国际治理趋势及对策研究”(项目批准号:24AGJ005)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：太空事业发展既是大国地位的象征,更是其战略实力的来源之一。美国企图凭借自身超强的太空实力护持其全球霸权,确保在太空领域的绝对优势。但由于太空系统存在“能力—脆弱性”悖论,美国加快太空武器化和太空建军步伐必然招致其他行为体的非对称反制。为此,美国又通过发展太空弹性来实现其太空战略的“进化”,试图以此抵消这些非对称反制,重新确立令对手望而却步的太空威慑。美大肆渲染现有太空威胁,为其太空战略向弹性“进化”制造依据;推出“进化”目标,构建分布式快速重组太空体系,提升太空系统的抗打击和快速恢复能力;提高“进化”效率,构建联盟太空行动能力,增加美国可用的太空资源。然而,由于美太空战略“进化”的实质是依仗其技术优势进行的太空“再威慑”战略,其必然加剧太空军备竞赛,导致太空技术和产业泛安全化,并引发各方在太空领域的不安全感,最终不仅阻滞太空军备控制进程,还可能导致国际冲突乃至战争。因此,美国理性的选择是从根本上放弃以太空谋求霸权,转而与国际社会加强太空国际合作,携手构建太空人类命运共同体。The development of space capability is not only a symbol of a great power,but also one of its sources of strategic strength.The United States is trying to maintain its global hegemony by relying on its exceptionally strong space power and ensuring absolute superiority in the space domain.However,due to the“capability-vulnerability”paradox in space,the acceleration of space militarization and weaponization by the United States will inevitably lead to asymmetric countermeasures from other actors.To this end,the United States is developing space resilience to achieve the“evolution”of its space strategy,trying to offset those asymmetric countermeasures and re-establish effective space deterrence.The United States has hyped up the existing space threat to create a basis for“evolution”,launched the“evolution”goal,built a distributed and rapidlyreorganized space system,and improved the ability of space systems to resist attacks and recover quickly;improved the efficiency of the“evolution”by building combined space operation capabilities,and expanding the space capabilities available to the United States.However,since the essence of the“evolution”is the“re-deterrence”strategy based on U.S.technological advantages,the strategic practice will inevitably intensify the space arms race,lead to the pan-securitization of space technology and industry and trigger a sense of insecurity of all actors.Ultimately,it will not only block the process of space arms control but also easily lead to international conflicts and even wars.Therefore,the rational choice of the United States is to fundamentally abandon the pursuit of hegemony in space,and instead strengthen international cooperation in space with the international community to jointly build a community of shared future for mankind in space.

关 键 词：太空弹性 美国太空战略 太空战略“进化” 非对称反制 太空军备竞赛 

分 类 号：D51[政治法律—政治学]