多重危机冲击下的欧元区制度革新  

Institutional Renovation of the Eurozone under the Impacts of Multi-Crises

作　　者：扈大威 Hu Dawei

机构地区：[1]中国国际问题研究院国际战略所,北京100005

出　　处：《国际论坛》2024年第6期139-154,160,共17页International Forum

摘　　要：浮动汇率是应对宏观经济失衡的有用政策工具,统一货币区内各国因失去汇率自主,故必须具备最优性特征,以防止不对称冲击出现,或有效应对不对称冲击。欧元引入后,利率趋同导致核心区资本流向边缘区,形成后者债务驱动的增长模式。统一货币政策框架引起区内结构性分化和宏观经济失衡。金融危机后资本跨境流动骤停,依赖债务的增长模式难以为继。成员国政府反危机措施与对金融机构的担保导致主权债务激增。主权债券市场的恶性平衡和投机诱发主权债务可持续性危机,进而危及统一货币生存。欧盟推出系列制度创新,加强欧元区宏观经济监控,建立银行业联盟,设立金融稳定和救助机制,发挥欧央行对成员国政府最后贷款人作用,增强应对金融不对称冲击的能力。新冠疫情和俄乌冲突对欧元区构成新的冲击和巨大财政压力,欧盟出台“下一代欧盟”计划予以应对,财政一体化迈出实质步伐。经验证明,为维护欧元区完整性,必须在货币和财政政策方面放宽条约规定的限制。由成员国通过集体发债推进财政一体化,是欧元区克服经济增长乏力及通缩倾向,有效应对内外挑战的必由之路。Flexible exchange rate is a key macroeconomic policy instrument.And the lack of it must be compensated by Optimum Currency Area property in the currency area concerned to prevent asymmetric impacts from happening,or to be tackled effectively if it does arise.After the introduction of the Euro,interest rate convergence within a short period of time caused capital flow from core to periphery,leading to a debt-driven economic growth model for the latter.Uniformed monetary policy gives rise to structural imbalances and economic divergence in the Area.The global financial crisis of 2008-09 brought the cross-border capital flow to a sudden stop,the debt-driven economic growth model collapsed as a result.In the efforts to tackle the financial crisis and to provide guarantees to a shaky financial sector,governments accumulated huge public debt almost overnight,and a lack of equilibrium in sovereign debt markets emerged.The acute sovereign debt crisis brought the currency union to the verge of collapse.A series of institutional innovations were ushered in by the EU to both tackle the crisis head on and prevent the dire situation from happening again,among them an enhanced macroeconomic monitoring system,a banking Union,an ad hoc and permanent assistance mechanism,and the ECB playing the role of lender of last resort to the governments.The capacity of the Euro Area to better withstand financial asymmetric impacts has substantially increased.COVID-19 pandemic and Russian-Ukrainan conflict have posed new asymmetric effects on the currency union,and the member states were under huge financial stress.The Next Generation EU plan has been designed by the European Union,which moved decisively toward fiscal integration and pooling financial resources at the EU level.A relaxation of the monetary and fiscal rule enshrined in the EU treaty seems unavoidable for the currency union to survive a severe systemic impact in the future.Before mounting challenges both inside and outside of the currency union,including persistent deflation bi

关 键 词：欧洲经济 欧债危机 最优货币区理论 欧元区改革 银行业联盟 “下一代欧盟”计划 欧元区三不兼容 

分 类 号：D50[政治法律—政治学]