论战略预警情报工作的改进——基于决策者视角  

Research on the Improvement of Strategic Warning Intelligence:From the Perspective of Decision-Makers

作　　者：周柏林 高金虎 Zhou Bailin Gao Jinhu(College of International Studies,National University of Defense Technology,Nanjing 210039)

机构地区：[1]国防科技大学外国语学院,南京210039

出　　处：《情报杂志》2024年第11期17-23,60,共8页Journal of Intelligence

基　　金：国家社会科学基金军事学重大项目“新时代巩固提高一体化国家安全情报体系和能力问题研究”(编号:2023-SKJJ-A-010);国防科技大学教育教学重点研究项目“基于深度学习理论培塑军事情报专业本科学员学术素养的《情报文化》课程改革研究”(编号:U2022208)研究成果。

摘　　要：[研究目的]战略预警情报旨在洞察风险发现机遇,消除决策中的不确定性,赢得决策者认可是预警情报工作的关键。立足决策者视域,分析采纳预警情报的动机与制约因素,对提高预警情报利用效益,维护和增进国家利益大有裨益。[研究方法]从情报与决策的互动关系出发,运用认知心理学理论,剖析决策者对战略预警的认知机理,研究决策者采纳预警情报的考量因素,探讨利用结构化分析等方法改进预警情报工作。[研究结论]情报观对战略预警工作至关重要,决策者根据情报质量与政策相关性衡量预警情报。倡导决策者树立正确的情报观,改善情报与决策关系,从体制建设、人才培养、沟通互信、分析方法等方面改进战略预警情报工作。[Research purpose]Strategic warning intelligence aims to discern risks and opportunities,eliminate uncertainty in decision-making.Obtaining the recognition of decision-makers is the key to warning intelligence.Based on the perspective of decision-makers,analyzing the motives and constraints of adopting early warning intelligence is of great benefit to improving the efficiency of warning intelligence utilization and safeguarding and enhancing national interests.[Research method]This article starts from the interaction between intelligence and decision-making,applies cognitive psychology theory to analyze the cognitive mechanism of decision-makers towards strategic warning,studies the factors that decision-makers consideration when adopting warning intelligence,and explores the use of structured analysis and other methods to improve warning intelligence.[Research conclusion]The intelligence perspective is crucial for strategic warning intelligence.Decision-makers measure warning intelligence based on the quality of intelligence and policy relevance.This article advocates for decision-makers to establish an accurate intelligence perspective,improve the relationship between intelligence and decision-making,and improve strategic warning intelligence from aspects such as institutional construction,talent cultivation,communication and mutual trust,and analysis methods.

关 键 词：预警情报 战略预警 决策者 情报观 情报与决策关系 

分 类 号：E87[军事—军事情报学]