美国智库对中国周边跨境水资源安全影响的战略评估  

U.S.Think Tanks'Strategic Assessment of Transboundary Water Security Implications in China's Surrounding Areas

作　　者：贾佳美子 王志坚[2,3] Jia Jiameizi;Wang Zhijian(School of History,The University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100732;Law School,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100;The Johns Hopkins University-Nanjing University Center for Chinese and American Studies,Nanjing 210008)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院大学历史学院,北京100732 [2]河海大学法学院,南京211100 [3]南京大学-约翰斯·霍普金斯大学中美文化研究中心,南京210008

出　　处：《情报杂志》2024年第11期68-77,共10页Journal of Intelligence

基　　金：国家社会科学基金后期资助项目“水资源安全化视角下的国际河流管理”(编号:21FGJB010)研究成果。

摘　　要：[研究目的]在中美战略竞争的大背景下,水资源议题已成为美国对华竞争的重要场域,这其中美国智库的推手作用不可忽视。以美国智库为核心研究视角,分析美国对中国周边水资源安全的认知及影响,为相关议题研究提供借鉴,为决策者研判中国跨境水资源治理态势提供可靠的信息支持及应对之策。[研究方法]选取美国8家智库22篇具有代表性的核心研究报告和分析文章进行文本分析,梳理美国智库对中国周边跨境水资源安全现状及安全手段的认知和评估,就其核心观点的特点、动因及内外部影响展开讨论。[研究结果]研究发现,美国智库对中国周边水资源安全的战略评估多以负面为主,认为中国“控制”了其周边流域的水资源,并依托此展开地缘竞争。这一负面认知扩散到了美国的政府外交、公众舆论中,中国逐渐被塑造为“水霸权国”。中国应从健全情报建设体系、加强周边跨境河流跨学科研究、舆论管控等方面,对有关认知加以鉴别,科学应对。[Research purpose]Under the background of the U.S.–China strategic competition,water resource issues have become a critical battlefield of the U.S.competition toward China,in which the role of the U.S.think tanks cannot be ignored.Taking the U.S.think tanks as the core research perspective,analyzing the perception and influence of the United States on China's peripheral water resources security will provide reference for China's think tanks'research on related issues,and provide decision-makers with reliable information to support and respond to China's cross-border water resources governance situation.[Research method]Twenty-two representative core research reports and analytical articles from eight U.S.think tanks are selected for textual analysis to sort out the U.S.think tanks'perceptions and assessments of the current status and security measures of water resources security in the international basins around China,and the characteristics,motivations,and internal and external impacts of their core viewpoints are discussed.[Research conclusion]The study finds that U.S.think tanks predominantly have a negative strategic assessment of water security around China,suggesting that China"controls"the water resources of its transboundary basins and relies on them for geopolitical competition.This negative perception has spread to U.S.government diplomacy and public opinion,gradually shaping China's image as a"water hegemony".China should identify and scientifically respond to such perceptions by improving its intelligence-building system,strengthening interdisciplinary research on transboundary rivers in its peripheral areas,and managing public opinion properly.

关 键 词：美国智库 水资源安全 周边安全 美国对华政策 战略评估 

分 类 号：D815.5[政治法律—国际关系] D871.2[政治法律—政治学]