情报分析中的认知偏见可控性问题:路径、局限及未来方向  

Studies on the Maneuverability of Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis:Path,Limitations and Future Research

作　　者：陈烨 马晓娟 Chen Ye;Ma Xiaojuan(College of International Studies,National University of Defense Technology,Nanjing 210039)

机构地区：[1]国防科技大学外国语学院,南京210039

出　　处：《情报杂志》2024年第11期87-94,101,共9页Journal of Intelligence

基　　金：国家社会科学基金军事学重大项目“新时代巩固提高一体化国家安全情报体系和能力问题研究”(编号:2023-SKJJ-A-010)研究成果。

摘　　要：[研究目的]厘清认知偏见的内涵、生发机理以及认知偏见在情报分析中的影响,深入剖析认知偏见可控性问题的研究内涵,反思有关认知偏见可控性问题研究的基本思路和存在的局限性,以进一步探究未来的研究方向。[研究方法]通过对认知偏见问题可控性相关研究的梳理,分别从理论内涵、方法策略、研究视角等角度阐明研究的特点、局限性和未来研究方向。[研究结论]研究认知偏见的可控性需要从三个方面着手。一是应该摆脱非理性桎梏,辩证看待认知偏见,侧重优化认知偏见控制策略;二是需要克服主流认知强迫策略的局限性,强化实现认知塑造的偏见控制核心目的;三是要以基于偏见机理的理论研究视角为核心,拓展实证驱动和数据驱动等研究视角,实现对情报分析中认知偏见的综合性研究。[Research purpose]The paper approaches the theme of maneuverability of cognitive bias by deliberating on the connotation,mechanism and impact of cognitive bias in intelligence analysis.The paper bases its studies on the future direction of cognitive bias research through a reflection on the path and limitations of research on maneuverability of cognitive bias.[Research method]Through illustrating the research on maneuverability of cognitive bias,the paper tries to elaborate on the characteristics,limitations and future research direction from the aspects of theoretical connotation,methodological strategy and research perspective.[Research conclusion]Research on the maneuverability of cognitive bias can be directed as follows.Firstly,emphasis should be put on optimizing the mitigation strategy by adopting a holistic view of cognitive bias instead of viewing it as non-rational concept.Secondly,the goal should be to restructure cognition by coping with the limits of mainstream mitigation strategy such as cognitive force strategy.Thirdly,we should conduct comprehensive studies on cognitive bias by taking the research of cognitive bias mechanism as the core,as well as adopting the empirical study-driven and data-driven perspectives.

关 键 词：情报分析 情报失误 认知偏见 偏见识别 可控性 控制策略 

分 类 号：G353.1[文化科学—情报学]