基于组合赋权-云模型的崩塌危险性评价  

LANDSLIDE RISK ASSESSMENT BASED ON COMBINED WEIGHTING AND CLOUD MODEL

作　　者：张溢 ZHANG Yi(Chongqing Three Gorges University,Chongqing Wanzhou 404100,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆三峡学院,重庆万州404100

出　　处：《低温建筑技术》2024年第10期96-100,共5页Low Temperature Architecture Technology

基　　金：重庆市三峡水库岸坡与工程结构灾变防控工程技术研究中心基金项目(SXAPGC23XC02)

摘　　要：为解决山区崩塌灾害评价指标赋权准确性低以及综合评价方法不能兼顾指标随机性和不确定性等问题,文中以汶川-理县路段的崩塌灾害为研究对象,通过改进的层次分析法与变异系数法计算崩塌灾害危险性评价指标的主观和客观权重,并利用组合赋权的方法计算指标的组合权重。最后运用云模型对崩塌点进行综合评价,并与其他评价方法进行对比。研究结果表明,组合赋权-云模型方法的结果更接近实际情况,其中最容易发生崩塌的情况占实际情况的85%,这验证了文中提出的方法是合理可行的,对此类型地区的崩塌防治工作具有科学指导意义。To address the issues of low accuracy in assigning weights to landslide hazard evaluation indicators and the inability of comprehensive evaluation methods to account for indicator randomness and uncertainty,this study fo-cuses on landslide hazards in the WenchuanLixian section,an improved analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and co-efficient of variation method are used to calculate both subjective and objective weights for the landslide hazard eval-uation indicators,additionally,a combined weighting approach is utilized to compute the composite weights of the in-dicators.Finally,a cloud model is employed for a comprehensive evaluation of landslide points and compared with other evaluation methods.The results indicate that the combined weighting-cloud model method more closely ap-proximates actual conditions,with 85% of the most likely landslide occurrences aligning with the real situation,this confirms that the proposed method is reasonable and feasible,providing valuable scientific guidance for landslide prevention and control in similar regions.

关 键 词：崩塌灾害 组合赋权 云模型 危险性评价 

分 类 号：TU434[建筑科学—岩土工程]