Coupled Pacific Rim megadroughts contributed to the fall of the MingDynasty’s capital in 1644 CE  

环太平洋特大干旱导致公元1644年明朝首都的陷落

作　　者：Feng Chen Tao Wang Xiaoen Zhao Jan Esper Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist Ulf Büntgen Hans W.Linderholm David Meko Hongna Xu Weipeng Yue Shijie Wang Yujiang Yuan Jingyun Zheng Wei Pan Fidel Roig Martín Hadad Mao Hu Jiachang Wei Fahu Chen 陈峰;王涛;赵晓恩;Jan Esper;Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist;Ulf Bintgen;Hans W.Linderholm;David Meko;许红娜;岳伟鹏;王世杰;袁玉江;郑景云;潘威;Fidel Roig;Martin Hadad;胡茂;魏家昌;陈发虎

机构地区：[1]Yunnan Key Laboratory of International Rivers and Transboundary Eco-Security,Institute of International Rivers and Eco-Security,Yunnan University,Kunming 650504,China [2]Southwest United Graduate School,Kunming 650504,China [3]Climate Change Research Center and Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China [4]Department of Geography,Johannes Gutenberg University,Mainz 55099,Germany [5]Global Change Research Institute(CzechGlobe),Czech Academy of Sciences,Brno 60300,Czech Republic [6]Department of History,Stockholm University,Stockholm 10691,Sweden [7]Bolin Centre for Climate Research,Stockholm University,Stockholm 10691,Sweden [8]Swedish Collegium for Advanced Study,Linneanum,Uppsala 75238,Sweden [9]Department of Geography,University of Cambridge,Cambridge CB23EN,UK [10]Department of Geography,Faculty of Science,Masaryk University,Brno 61137,Czech Republic [11]Swiss Federal Research Institute(WSL),Birmensdorf 8903,Switzerland [12]Regional Climate Group,Department of Earth Sciences,University of Gothenburg,Gothenburg 40530,Sweden [13]Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research,University of Arizona,Tucson AZ 85721,USA [14]Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC FEMD),Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China [15]Key Laboratory of Tree-ring Physical and Chemical Research,Institute of Desert Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration,Urumqi 830002,China [16]Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation,Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China [17]Key Laboratory of Digital Human Technology R&D and Application of Yunnan Provincial Department of Education,Yunnan University,Kunming 650504,China [18]Laboratorio de Dendrocronología e Historia Ambiental,IANIGLA-CCT CONICET-Universidad Nacional de Cuyo,Mendoza 5500,Argentina [19]Hémera Centro de Observación de La Tierra,Escuela de I

出　　处：《Science Bulletin》2024年第19期3106-3114,共9页科学通报（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the Basic Science Center for Tibetan Plateau Earth System(BSCTPES,41988101);the National Natural Science Foundation of China(32061123008);Ulf Büntgen and Jan Esper were supported by the ERC Advanced Grant Monostar(Ad G 882727);the Czech Science Foundation(23-08049S,HYDRO8);Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist was supported by the Swedish Research Council(Vetenskapsr?det,2018-01272);the Marianne and Marcus Wallenberg Foundation(MMW 20220114)。

摘　　要：Historical documents provide evidence for regional droughts preceding the political turmoil and fall of Beijing in 1644 CE,when more than 20 million people died in northern China during the late Ming famine period.However,the role climate and environmental changes may have played in this pivotal event in Chinese history remains unclear.Here,we provide tree-ring evidence of persistent megadroughts from1576 to 1593 CE and from 1628 to 1644 CE in northern China,which coincided with exceptionally cold summers just before the fall of Beijing.Our analysis reveals that these regional hydroclimatic extremes are part of a series of megadroughts along the Pacific Rim,which not only impacted the ecology and society of monsoonal northern China,but likely also exacerbated external geopolitical and economic pressures.This finding is corroborated by last millennium reanalysis data and numerical climate model simulations revealing internally driven Pacific sea surface temperature variations and the predominance of decadal scale La Ni?a-like conditions to be responsible for precipitation decreases over northern China,as well as extensive monsoon regions in the Americas.These teleconnection patterns provide a mechanistic explanation for reoccurring drought spells during the late Ming Dynasty and the environmental framework fostering the fall of Beijing in 1644 CE,and the subsequent demise of the Ming Dynasty.

关 键 词：PALEOCLIMATE Beijing Precipitation reconstruction Climate-society interactions Tree rings Ming Dynasty 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] K248.3[历史地理—历史学]