Analysis and prediction of glacier evolution trend(2020-2100)in Northern Xinjiang  

作　　者：Xi-yong Sun Yang Jiao Qian-li Ma Jing-hui Fan Xiao-min Du Jia-feng Liu Shao-qiang Wang Wen-chen Hu 

机构地区：[1]China Aero Geophysical Survey&Remote Sensing Center for Natural Resources,China Geological Survey,Ministry of Natural Resources,Beijing 100083,China [2]Oil and Gas Resources Survey Center of China Geological Survey,Beijing 100083,China [3]Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China [4]China University of Geosciences(Beijing),Beijing 100083,China [5]China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430074,China

出　　处：《China Geology》2024年第4期661-671,共11页中国地质（英文）

基　　金：jointly supported by the“Technology and Demonstration Applications for Monitoring High Snow-glacier and Geological Hazards in Asia and the Arctic”of Earth Observations Group Project Funding(2021YFE0116800)。

摘　　要：Glaciers,as“solid reservoirs”,are precious resources in arid areas.The study of glaciers is of great significance to the sustainable development and management of agriculture and the economy in northern Xinjiang.The area of glacier distribution on the 1963 topographic map data,1975 MSS data,2000 ETM data,2008 CBERS-2 data,2014 and 2018 ETM+were collected as secondary data.According to the remote sensing survey,the glacier areas in Northern Xinjiang are identified during 1963-2018.Based on the evolution of glacier area in the past 55 years,and using two scenarios,the average annual decrease area of a region during the whole 1963-2018 and the period with the minimum reduction area,the glacier areas of Southern Tianshan Mountains,Western Tianshan Mountains,Eastern Tianshan Mountains,the Sawuer Mountains and Altai Mountains in Northern Xinjiang,and the whole northern Xinjiang in 2030,2040,2050,and 2100 are examined and predicted.In 2100,the glacier area in Northern Xinjiang may decrease by 43%-59%.

关 键 词：Glacial evolution Glacial area Global warm Trend analysis Glacial disappear Environmental change Northern Xinjiang Altai Mountains of Central Asia 

分 类 号：P343.6[天文地球—水文科学]