2023年俄远东联邦区经济形势  

Economic Situation in the Far Eastern Federal District in 2023

作　　者： А.Б.巴尔达利 А.Г.伊萨耶夫 М.Г.马济托娃 钟建平(译)[2] O.M.Prokapalo;A.B.Bardal;A.G.Isaev;M.G.Mazitova;ZHONG Jianping

机构地区：[1]俄罗斯科学院远东分院经济研究所 [2]黑龙江省社会科学院俄罗斯研究所

出　　处：《西伯利亚研究》2024年第5期5-35,119,共32页Siberian Studies

摘　　要：以统计数据和分析报告为基础,按主要行业和行政区分析2023年远东联邦区的经济社会发展情况,细致研究制裁压力持续条件下远东实体经济、社会领域和对外经济活动遇到的问题。可以发现,个别经济部门的发展趋势仍不稳定且表现出矛盾性。支柱产业生产指数呈良好势头,增速高于2022年。尽管受到一系列限制性因素的冲击,投资活跃度仍保持较高水平。固定资产投资的大幅增长与大项目的实施有关,包括石油化工、天然气化工、矿产开采项目,以及新贸易地理条件下的交通物流基础设施项目。工业产值的增长得益于萨哈林州碳氢化合物产量增加和堪察加边疆区鱼捕捞量显著增加。建筑业抵御外部冲击能力最强,依靠住房建设规模的扩大,这一行业已经连续两年保持增长。除汽车运输以外,远东联邦区的货物运输业呈现良好发展态势。“东方多边形”铁路运能不足仍是突出问题。对外贸易的特点是出口和进口实物量增加。居民实际收入上涨和通货膨胀降幅加大条件下的消费需求旺盛是经济增长的因素之一。在此背景下,存在一系列可能严重阻碍继续再生产的消极因素:通货膨胀继续高于经济增长;人才特别是高级专业人才规模萎缩;人口自然减少和人口外流导致的人口持续下降。原文发表于俄罗斯《空间经济》杂志2024年第2期①,经作者同意在《西伯利亚研究》以中文刊发。The article analyzes the socioeconomic situation in the Far Eastern Federal District in 2023 by main types of economic activities and territorial-administrative regions on the basis of operational statistical,analytical,and expert information.The issues of functioning of the real sector of the economy,social sphere,foreign economic activity in the context of continuing sanctions pressure are considered.It is noted that the instability and inconsistency of development trends in certain sectors of the economy remain.The index of output of basic types of economic activities demonstrates positive dynamics with a growth rate above the level of 2022.Investment activity remained at a high level despite the existing shock restrictions.A large increase in investment in fixed assets is associated with the implementation of the largest,including export-oriented,projects in the field of oil and gas chemistry,mining,reconstruction of transport and logistics infrastructure due to the new geography of trade interactions.The overall growth of industrial output was mainly due to the increase in hydrocarbon production in the Sakhalin Oblast’and a significant increase in fish haul in the Kamchatka Krai.The construction sector demonstrates the greatest resistance to external shocks,with positive dynamics for the second year in a row due to,among other things,the expansion of housing construction.Freight transportation by all types of transport in the Far Eastern Federal District,with the exception of road transport,had positive dynamics.The issue that persisted was that of the deficit of carrying capacity of the Eastern polygon of railroads.Foreign trade was characterized by an increase in the physical volumes of exports and imports.One of the factors of economic growth was the expansion of consumer demand under the conditions of growth of real incomes of the population and declining inflation rate.Against this backdrop,there are numerous negative factors that may become serious obstacles to further growth:the inflation rate remai

关 键 词：制裁压力 投资 基础设施 劳动力市场 远东联邦区 

分 类 号：F151.2[经济管理—世界经济]