贸易不平衡影响劳动力工资性收入份额的效应与机制研究  

The Study on the Effect and Mechanism of Trade Imbalance on Labors’Wage Income Share

作　　者：杨洁 贾婷月 YANG Jie;JIA Ting-yue(Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences,Shanghai 200020,China)

机构地区：[1]上海社会科学院,上海200020

出　　处：《上海对外经贸大学学报》2024年第6期18-34,共17页Journal of Shanghai University of International Business and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“‘双循环’新格局下政府投资转型对制造业结构升级的影响机制研究”(项目编号:21CJY021)的资助。

摘　　要：在全球不确定性冲击和中国长期贸易顺差发展的背景下,研究贸易不平衡对劳动力工资性收入份额的影响及机制有助于为高质量发展阶段下制定兼顾劳动收入份额提高与高水平对外开放的宏观战略提供经验证据。本文采用2005~2022年中国28个省份270个地级市的面板数据对贸易不平衡与工资性收入关系进行实证检验,研究发现,贸易不平衡水平的提高抑制了中国劳动力工资性收入占比。机制分析发现,贸易不平衡水平的提高通过抑制劳动与技术密集型行业就业水平和提高资本密集型行业就业水平、促进资本偏向性技术进步以及推动产业结构调整这三个机制,降低了国民经济中的工资收入占比。异质性检验发现,贸易不平衡对工资收入占比的负面影响主要体现在东部和中部地区以及沿海和港口城市群内。进一步研究发现,贸易差额的增加有利于缩小城市内部与城市之间的工资差距。In the context of global uncertainty shocks and the long-term development of China's trade surplus,it is a great significance to study the effect and mechanism of trade imbalance on the labors'wage share.This paper uses panel data from 270 prefecture-level cities in 28 provinces of China from 2005 to 2022 to empirically test the relationship between trade imbalance and labor's wage.The research finds that trade imbalance is not conducive to the increase in the share of labor's wage in China.Mechanism analysis reveals that an increase in trade imbalance reduces wage share in the national economy through three mechanisms:suppressing employment levels in labor and technology-intensive industries,increasing employment levels in capital-intensive industries,promoting capital-biased technological progress,and promoting the rationalization of the industrial structure.Heterogeneity tests show that the negative impact of trade imbalance on the share of wage is mainly reflected in the eastem and central regions,as well as within coastal and port city clusters.Further research finds that an increase in trade surplus is conducive to narrowing the wage gap within cities and between cities.

关 键 词：贸易不平衡 工资性收入 就业 技术进步 产业结构 

分 类 号：F061.4[经济管理—政治经济学] F746