重大公共卫生事件对我国跨境电商产品出口影响研究——基于新冠病毒疫情冲击的准自然实验  

A Study on the Impact of Major Public Health Incidents on China’s Crossborder E-commerce Product Exports——Quasi Natural Experiment Based on the Impact of COVID-19 Epidemic

作　　者：茹玉骢 梅涵朵 韩慧 RU Yu-cong;MEI Han-duo;HAN Hui(School of International Business,Shanghai University of International Business and Economics,Shanghai 201620,China)

机构地区：[1]上海对外经贸大学国际经贸学院,上海201620

出　　处：《上海对外经贸大学学报》2024年第6期50-65,共16页Journal of Shanghai University of International Business and Economics

基　　金：上海市社科规划一般课题“新冠疫情下重大出口冲击对我国外贸发展模式的长期影响研究”(项目编号:2020BJB016);国家社会科学基金规划项目“双向FDI促进‘双循环’新格局构建的理论机制与实现路径研究”(项目编号:22BJL104)的支持。

摘　　要：近年来我国跨境电商出口呈现快速增长的趋势,本文以新冠病毒疫情冲击为准自然实验,考察公共卫生事件外部冲击如何影响我国出口贸易方式的变化,为我国跨境电商出口新模式快速增长现象提供理论和实证的解释。本文基于2018~2021年海关数据分布构建了出口国别–产品–季度样本以及省份–产品–季度样本,基于双重差分方法的实证研究结果表明,新冠病毒疫情的冲击使得跨境电商产品的出口显著高于非跨境电商产品的出口,且呈现持续性影响,即这一冲击实质性改变了我国产品的出口方式。异质性分析表明,疫情对于跨境电商出口的影响受到进口国的跨境电商发展水平和经济发展水平影响。基于省份–产品的进一步研究表明,我国地区数字经济发展水平、地区跨境电商综合示范区的设立和市场化水平都对地区跨境电商产品出口有显著影响。本文研究为地方政府推动跨境电子商务发展,扩大相关基础设施建设的有效性提供了支持。In recent years,China's cross-border e-commerce exports have shown a trend of rapid growth.This paper takes the COVID-19 epidemic as a quasinatural experiment to investigate how the public health events affect China's export,providing theoretical and empirical explanations for the rapid growth of China's new cross-border e-commerce export models.Based on the customs data from 2018 to 2021,this paper constructs export country product quarterly samples and province product quarterly samples.The empirical results using DID identification methods show that the impact of the COVID-19 makes the export of cross-border e-commerce products significantly higher than that of non cross-border e-commerce products,that is,this impact has substantially changed the export channels of China's products.Heterogeneity analysis shows that the impact of the epidemic on cross-border e-commerce exports is influenced by the cross-border e-commerce development and economic development in import countries.Additionally,the export promotion effect of cross-border e-commerce is influenced by the level of digital economy development,the establishment of comprehensive cross-border e-commerce demonstration zones,and the marketization process in Chinese provinces.This study provides support for local governments to promote the development of cross-border e-commerce and expand the effectiveness of related infrastructure construction.

关 键 词：新冠病毒疫情 跨境电商 DID模型 

分 类 号：F724[经济管理—产业经济]