复杂适应系统视角下的江苏省县级城市经济韧性特征与组态分析  

Characterization and Grouping Analysis of Economic Resilience of County-Level Cities in Jiangsu Province from the Perspective of Complex Adaptive Systems

作　　者：尹懋森 徐建刚[1] Yin Maosen;Xu Jiangang(School of Architecture and Urban Planning,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210008,China)

机构地区：[1]南京大学建筑与城市规划学院,南京210008

出　　处：《热带地理》2024年第11期2001-2014,共14页Tropical Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“基于复杂系统模拟的跨区域国土空间韧性耦合机制与规划方法研究——以长三角地区为例”(52178043)。

摘　　要：文章引入复杂适应系统(CAS)理论探析城市经济韧性的潜在影响因素,以江苏省54个县级单元为实证对象,首先从抵抗力和恢复力2个维度量化分析其应对2008年金融危机的经济韧性特征,然后利用解释性较强的5个影响因素对江苏省县域经济韧性进行组态分析。结果发现:1)在金融危机中,江苏省县域冲击程度呈现“南高北低”的空间格局。2)企业主体集聚、产业多样性特性对恢复期县级城市经济韧性具有一定正向作用。3)外贸流强度对于城市经济韧性状态具有双面作用,其影响在不同城市、不同阶段存在差异。4)抵抗期和恢复期分别有2和5条路径能实现高经济韧性,组态类型在空间上邻近分布,多样化产业、核心产业集聚以及内外贸易流的调整可能成为城市经济韧性提升的关键。Against the backdrop of cyclical fluctuations in the global economy,significant attention has been devoted to the resilience of urban economic systems in response to external shocks.Current academic understanding of the characteristics and primary types of urban economic resilience remains limited,with research in this area still at a preliminary stage.An in-depth analysis of the characteristics and patterns of economic resilience within urban systems could not only improve the understanding of urban economic resilience but also provide differentiated case studies for cities aiming to withstand future global financial crises.Based on this premise,Complex Adaptive Systems(CAS)theory is employed to analyze the potential factors influencing urban economic resilience.This study uses 54 county-level units in Jiangsu Province as empirical subjects,examining their economic resilience characteristics in response to the 2008 financial crisis across two dimensions:resistance and resilience.The study further analyzes five highly explanatory influencing factors to perform a grouping analysis of economic resilience among Jiangsu counties.The findings reveal that:1)during the financial crisis,the level of impact across Jiangsu's county areas displayed a spatial pattern of"high in the south and low in the north;"2)the agglomeration of enterprise entities and industrial diversity during the recovery period had a positive effect on county-level economic resilience;3)the impact of foreign trade intensity on economic resilience varied across cities and stages,reflecting a dual role;4)there exist two and five pathways to achieve high economic resilience during resistance and recovery periods,respectively,with close spatial proximity,industrial diversification,core industry agglomeration,and balanced trade flows emerging as critical elements for enhancing economic resilience.This study identifies a potential adaptive path for urban economic resilience:to counteract recessionary forces and stabilize fundamentals by developing sectors

关 键 词：经济韧性 复杂适应系统 地理探测器 fsQCA 江苏 

分 类 号：F129.9[经济管理—世界经济]