低碳导向下的东江流域土地利用优化与模拟  

Land Use Optimization and Simulation in the Dongjiang River Basin with a Low-Carbon Orientation

作　　者：何艳虎 吴璐言 林泽宇 He Yanhu;Wu Luyan;Lin Zeyu(School of Ecology,Environment and Resources,Guangdong University of Technology,Guangzhou 510006,China;Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Quality Improvement and Ecological Restoration for Watersheds,Guangzhou 510006,China)

机构地区：[1]广东工业大学生态环境与资源学院,广州510006 [2]广东省流域水环境治理与水生态修复重点实验室,广州510006

出　　处：《热带地理》2024年第11期2104-2114,共11页Tropical Geography

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3202200);广东省水利厅水资源节约与保护专项资金项目:中国式现代化的广东水资源管理框架与路径研究;国家自然科学基金(51979043)。

摘　　要：土地利用承载着大量人类经济社会活动,是碳排放的主要来源之一。为探究如何通过优化土地利用空间格局更好助力低碳发展,文章以东江流域为研究区,首先分别优化碳汇最大化和碳排放最小化2种低碳发展情景下的流域各土地利用结构,进一步构建CA-Markov模型,模拟流域2025年土地利用空间格局,进而比较分析一般情景和2种低碳情景下流域未来土地利用的低碳效果,最后提出低碳导向下的东江流域土地利用调控对策。结果表明:1)一般发展情景下,东江流域耕地占比从2020年的15.66%上升到18.66%,建设用地占比从2020年的3.76%上升到7.71%,而林地占比从2020年的74.36%降低至65.01%,变化主要集中在流域的西南部和中部地区等经济快速发展区域。2)2种低碳发展情景下,东江流域林地占比明显多于一般发展情景,差异部分主要为建设用地与耕地的变化。相较一般发展情景,2种低碳发展情景下的耕地占比降低4%~5%左右,建设用地占比降低4%左右,而林地占比则多出10%以上。3)东江流域需提高耕地和建设用地利用效率,将利用率低和尚未得到有效利用的地类转化为林地等碳吸收能力强的地类;对未利用土地进行地类转化,旨在通过地类转化方式促进经济健康发展的同时,保证转化地类具有一定的碳吸收能力或较低的碳排放能力。4)在CAMarkov模型中加入行政中心位置信息,能有效提升模型的模拟精度。Land use is one of the main sources of carbon emissions,driven by numerous human economic and social activities.This study focuses on the Dongjiang River Basin to investigate how land use optimization can better contribute to low-carbon development.This study first optimizes the land use structure in the basin under two low-carbon development scenarios,maximizing carbon sinks and minimizing carbon emissions.A CAMarkov model was employed to simulate the land use spatial pattern in the river basin for 2025.We then compared and analyzed the low-carbon effect of future land use in the basin under the general development scenario and the two low-carbon scenarios,and proposed countermeasures to regulate land use in the Dongjiang River Basin under a low-carbon orientation.The results showed that(1)under the natural development scenario,the proportion of cultivated land in the Dongjiang River Basin increased from 15.66%in 2020 to 18.66%,construction land from 3.76%to 7.71%,and forest land decreased from 74.36%to 65.01%.Major changes were concentrated in the southwestern and central regions of the basin,where rapid economic development was driving a significant increase in construction and cultivated land,leading to a reduction in forest area.Additionally,in some northern and southeastern areas of the basin,forest land has been converted to grassland,cultivated land,and construction areas.(2)Under the two low-carbon development scenarios,the proportion of forest land in the Dongjiang River Basin was significantly higher than that under the natural development scenario,mainly due to changes in construction and cultivated land.Compared to the natural development scenario,the proportion of cultivated land under the two low-carbon scenarios decreased by approximately 4%-5%,construction land decreased by about 4%,and forest land increased by over 10%.It is evident that the carbon sink maximization scenario achieved a better low-carbon effect than the carbon emission minimization scenario,primarily because of the larger proport

关 键 词：土地利用优化 碳排放 碳汇 低碳 CA-Markov 东江流域 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]